Bitcoin and Crypto Bull Cycles: From Opportunities to Reality

Since 2009, Bitcoin has become a financial phenomenon, with its value fluctuating from symbolic figures to over $93,000. But behind these numbers lies a question every investor asks: When will the next crypto bull run occur?

To answer this question, we need to understand Bitcoin’s historical cycles, the factors driving them, and the warning signals the market sends out. This journey is not just about price history but also about the story of changing global perceptions of digital assets.

Building the Foundation: The 2013 Price Surge - The Beginning of a Legend

It’s no surprise that Bitcoin’s first crypto bull run happened in 2013. At that time, Bitcoin was still a strange concept to most of the public.

From around $145 in May to nearly $1,200 in December, this 730% increase marked the market’s awakening. Initial acceptance from developers, early users, and infrastructure development created strong momentum.

Lessons from 2013

However, not everything was smooth sailing. The collapse of Mt. Gox exchange in early 2014 (handling 70% of Bitcoin transactions at that time) caused a crisis in the market. Bitcoin dropped below $300, losing over 75% of its value. Lesson: Strong infrastructure is the foundation of any sustainable rally.

2017: When Retail Investors “Discover” Bitcoin

Four years later, Bitcoin again drew global attention, this time with a completely different force. The 2017 crypto bull run was one of the most memorable events of the decade.

Numbers speak volumes:

• From ~$1,000 (January 2017) to ~$20,000 (December 2017)
• Increase: 1,900%
• Daily trading volume: from under $200 million to over $15 billion

The Driving Forces of 2017

1. ICO Boom (Initial Coin Offering): Hundreds of new token projects emerged, attracting retail investor capital. This development created a feedback loop: Bitcoin price rises → investor interest → ICOs increase → Bitcoin demand rises.

2. More User-Friendly Exchanges: The emergence of easy-to-use platforms lowered entry barriers for retail investors.

3. Media Coverage: The skyrocketing prices became mainstream news, creating a large FOMO (fear of missing out) effect.

The Collapse: Lessons on Volatility

By December 2018, Bitcoin had fallen to around $3,200, losing 84% from its peak. Chinese regulators banned ICOs and exchanges, leading to major sell-offs. Lesson: Regulation can be the most powerful catalyst to change market direction.

2020-2021: The Institutional Generation Welcomes Bitcoin

If 2013 was the start and 2017 was the bubble, then 2020-2021 marked maturity. This crypto bull run was characterized by: the participation of financial institutions.

Fundamental Transformation

• Period: From ~$8,000 (January 2020) to ~$64,000 (April 2021)
• Increase: 700%
• Investors: MicroStrategy, Tesla, Square, and many other publicly traded companies

MicroStrategy holds over 125,000 BTC. Institutional capital flows exceeded $10 billion. This is not just a price frenzy—it’s a self-affirmation of the system.

The “Digital Gold” Narrative

Bitcoin redefined itself: no longer just a speculative asset, but a hedge against inflation. As central banks print money en masse to respond to COVID-19, Bitcoin becomes a safe haven for those concerned about fiat currency value.

Challenges: Environment and Regulation

Despite strong growth, Bitcoin faces criticism over energy consumption. The SEC also increased oversight. In July 2021, Bitcoin dropped to around $30,000 (-53%).

Halving Events: Core Drivers of Crypto Bull Cycles

To understand Bitcoin, you must understand halving. Every four years, the Bitcoin mining reward halves. What does this mean? New supply of Bitcoin is cut off.

Halving History and BTC Price

Halving events are not just technical changes—they are psychological catalysts. Investors know supply will decrease, and history shows prices tend to rise afterward.

2024-25: ETF Generation and Wall Street Awakening

2024 brings a major shift. In January 2024, the SEC approved the first spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US. What does this mean?

Institutional investors—pension funds, insurance companies, hedge funds—can now hold Bitcoin through familiar financial products without worrying about custody.

Result: A Completely Different Crypto Bull Run

• Capital Inflows: Over $4.5 billion into Bitcoin ETFs by November 2024
• BTC Price: From ~$40,000 (January 2024) to ~$93,000 (November 2024)
• Increase: 132%

BlackRock holds over 467,000 BTC via IBIT ETF. All Bitcoin ETFs combined hold over 1 million BTC—a colossal figure.

Additional Catalysts

1. April 2024 Halving: Reduces Bitcoin inflation rate from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block.

2. Policy Support: Former President Donald Trump publicly endorses Bitcoin, promising a more friendly regulatory environment if re-elected.

3. Institutional Accumulation: MicroStrategy continues buying. Countries like Bhutan (13,000+ BTC) now see Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset.

( Current Challenges

• High Volatility: FOMO and profit-taking can cause sudden corrections
• Regulation: Authorities are still shaping the legal framework
• Market Saturation: As Bitcoin market cap grows, absolute gains become harder
• Altcoin Competition: Other cryptocurrencies with advanced features may divert capital from Bitcoin

Signs That a Crypto Bull Is Coming

Not all rallies are the same, but some common signs include:

) Technical Indicators

• RSI Above 70: Often signals strong momentum ###In 2024, Bitcoin’s RSI surpasses this level###
• Breaking Moving Averages: Price crosses above 50-day and 200-day MA confirming an uptrend
• Increasing Trading Volume: Stablecoin inflows into exchanges rise significantly

( On-Chain Data

• Wallet Activity Increase: Users open new wallets, accumulating Bitcoin
• Decreasing Reserves on Exchanges: Investors withdraw Bitcoin to hold long-term
• Institutional Flows: Large funds start buying in bulk

) Macroeconomic Factors

• Interest Rate Policies: Lower interest rates make Bitcoin more attractive
• Inflation: Large money supply creates a base for Bitcoin as a hedge
• Regulatory Approvals: ETFs, futures, or supportive policies

How to Prepare for the Next Crypto Bull Run

1. Educate Yourself About Bitcoin and Market Cycles

• Read the original Bitcoin whitepaper
• Study historical bull runs ###2013, 2017, 2021, 2024###
• Understand what differs in each cycle: who invests, what drives it, when the peak occurs

( 2. Develop a Clear Investment Strategy

• Set Goals: Are you aiming for short-term profits or long-term growth?
• Assess Risk Tolerance: Bitcoin can lose 50% in a few months
• Diversify: Not everything should be in Bitcoin. Consider Ethereum, altcoins, and traditional assets

) 3. Choose a Reliable Exchange

• Look for platforms with 2FA, biometric verification
• Check history, user base, trading volume
• Ensure the platform supports withdrawals to cold wallets

4. Protect Your Investments

• Hardware Wallets: For long-term holdings, store Bitcoin offline
• 2FA Everywhere: On exchanges, email, wallets
• Whitelist Withdrawals: Only allow withdrawals to approved addresses

5. Stay Updated with News and Developments

• Follow trusted crypto news sources
• Monitor regulatory changes
• Track key events: halving, ETF approvals, policy shifts

6. Trade Responsibly

• Avoid Emotional Decisions: FOMO and fear are investors’ enemies
• Use Stop-Loss Orders: Set automatic loss limits
• Take Profits Periodically: No need to wait for the peak to realize gains

7. Understand Tax Implications

• Crypto transactions may be taxable
• Keep detailed records: date, amount, buy/sell price
• Consult a tax professional if needed

8. Engage with the Community

• Join online forums, discussion groups
• Learn from other investors
• Share experiences and lessons

The Future: Factors Shaping Upcoming Crypto Bull Runs

Bitcoin as a Strategic Reserve Asset

The BITCOIN Act of 2024 proposed by Senator Cynthia Lummis suggests that the US Treasury could buy up to 1 million BTC over five years. If realized, this would create enormous demand and legitimize Bitcoin on the national status network.

Countries like Bhutan ###13,000+ BTC### and El Salvador (5,875+ BTC) have already shown the way. If major nations follow suit, Bitcoin will become part of the global reserve system.

( Technology Upgrades: OP_CAT

Bitcoin may soon receive OP_CAT—a code previously removed that can enable rollups and Layer 2 solutions. This will allow Bitcoin to process thousands of transactions per second, expanding utility beyond just store of value.

) New Institutional Products

Moreover, Bitcoin mutual funds, futures, and regulated products will continue to attract institutional capital.

Next Halving Cycle

The next halving is expected in 2028. History suggests these events often lead to Bitcoin growth over the following 18-24 months.

Conclusion: When Will the Next Crypto Bull Arrive?

The exact timing cannot be predicted, but conditions are aligning.

Key factors to watch:

• Regulatory policies: Will new administrations be more crypto-friendly?
• Institutional inflows: Will ETFs, pension funds, and public companies continue buying?
• Next halving event: 2028 could trigger a new wave of gains
• Macroeconomic environment: Inflation, interest rates, recession or recovery?

Bitcoin in 2025 will not be the same as in 2013. It is no longer just a speculative asset—it’s becoming part of the mainstream financial system. This means the next crypto bull runs could last longer, be less volatile, but also more stable.

Whether you are a long-term holder or a new investor, understanding these cycles is fundamental to making smart decisions. Stay vigilant, prepare, and always remember: in the Bitcoin market, patience and education are the most valuable assets.