2025-12-25 07:23:40

Renowned trader Peter Brandt recently shared his latest insights on Bitcoin cycles. This trader, who accurately predicted the 2018 Bitcoin crash, believes that Bitcoin has no equal in history—over the past 15 years, it has experienced five parabolic surges on a logarithmic scale, each followed by at least an 80% deep correction.

We are currently in the fifth cycle. From the low point at the end of 2022 to around $126,000 in October 2025, this upward movement has been completed. It then broke out of the parabolic curve, but the decline during this period is still far from over. From the peak, the drop has been only about 30%, hovering around $86,000-$90,000 in late December, which is far less severe than historical bear markets.

Brandt is delving into the timing of Bitcoin's bottoming out—it's a complex issue. However, he has already made a prediction for the next bull market peak: September 2029. This forecast is based on his exponential decay model, which extrapolates by observing the patterns of historical cycles.

In other words, his view is that the current cycle is far from over, and we are still in the tug-of-war phase of the bear market. Interestingly, this logic has been repeatedly validated throughout Bitcoin's history.

BTC1.38%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

9 Likes

Reward
9
6
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

Layer3Dreamer

· 8h ago

theoretically speaking, if we map brandt's logarithmic cycles onto a recursive state model... we're essentially observing cross-temporal verification happening in real-time. the 80% drawdown pattern? that's just the market's way of achieving consensus through zero-knowledge pain, ngl

Reply0

MintMaster

· 8h ago

Brandt, this guy is starting to tell stories again. An 80% drop sounds pretty scary... but we're only down 30% now, so we're not quite there yet. Wait, he said the peak will be in September 2029? So we still have to ride the roller coaster for more than 4 years? That's a bit despairing. This guy was indeed impressive in 2018, but as for this prediction... eh, there's nothing I can do about it anyway, so I'll just keep holding.

View OriginalReply0

AlphaWhisperer

· 8h ago

Brandt is predicting again, September 2029? Well, I guess I have to live until then, haha. Just a 30% drop and calling it a bear market? Come on, is this time really different? An 80% deep correction... just thinking about it hurts. Luckily, I went all in a long time ago. Wait, has his logic been verified? Then why does someone always end up losing everything down to their underwear? The cycle theory stuff has gotten my ears calloused, but it’s actually pretty accurate... the only thing no one can grasp is the timing.

View OriginalReply0

MEVHunterNoLoss

· 8h ago

Brant always manages to speak convincingly, but do you dare to go all in according to his cycle? Anyway, I don't dare. Why is it again 2029? This prediction timeline is ridiculously long. A 30% decline isn't enough? How much would it have to crash to be considered a deep correction? That logic is a bit extreme. Has it been verified by history? But history hasn't predicted black swan events either. The cycle theory sounds comfortable, but I don't know who will live to see that wave in 2029. With so many AI developments and black swan events, do people still dare to trust the logarithmic coordinate system? Wait, according to his logic, is it still too early to bottom fish? Then why are so many people rushing in?

View OriginalReply0

HashBard

· 8h ago

brandt's doing the whole "trust me bro, i read the charts" thing again... 80% drawdowns are like the bear market speedrun, and we're only at 30%? ngl the math checks out but man, waiting till 2029 for the next peak is how you get rekt by impatience lmao

Reply0

NotSatoshi

· 8h ago

Brandt is telling stories again... 80% decline? We're waiting to see If it really drops that hard, the coins in my possession would be gone long ago September 2029? Ha, should I start stockpiling food now? I've listened to this cycle theory for so many years, does it really work? But on the other hand, he did get it right once, and that’s enough to be frightening

View OriginalReply0