#美联储降息政策 Seeing Trump criticize the Federal Reserve for raising interest rates too little, I actually find it a bit amusing. These people are torn between politics and interests, and the market has become a testing ground.

The key is to look at the data—out of the 12 voting members of the FOMC, 5 oppose further easing, while 3 support it. Such a split has only occurred 9 times since 1990. In other words, the Federal Reserve is really in chaos right now. Such opposition votes were rarely seen before, but are becoming more frequent. This is not a good sign.

For us on the chain, what does this mean? It means policy expectations are becoming extremely uncertain. Sometimes they may continue to loosen and release liquidity (like plans to buy short-term Treasury bills), and other times hawkish voices may dominate. The market is most vulnerable to being caught off guard by such ambiguous signals.

I’ve seen too many people go all-in on a project under expectations of easing, only to be cut in half when policies suddenly change. Now, we need to be even more cautious—don’t be fooled by single-thread logic like "the Fed will loosen liquidity." The real danger has never been the policy itself, but the uncertainty of policy and market consensus. When everyone is betting on the same direction, the big players are the happiest.

In this round of market, I value survival more than quick profits.