#通胀压力 Goolsby’s words once again pull me back into the cyclical stories that have played out repeatedly over the years. From 2021 to 2023, inflationary pressures shifted from black swan to gray rhino, and then from gray rhino to a hot potato in the hands of policymakers—I watched firsthand as the Federal Reserve shifted from "inflation is temporary" to aggressive rate hikes, and the market experienced intense pain.

Now Goolsby predicts that the number of rate cuts next year will exceed the median expectation. It sounds moderate, but the underlying logic is thought-provoking. Concerns about prices remain the main worry for businesses and consumers. The labor market has cooled, yet inflation remains above target—I've seen this combination too many times. Every shift from tightening to easing policy is a balancing act on the tightrope between growth and price stability.

From the QE cycle after 2010, the exchange rate turbulence in 2015, the liquidity burst after the 2020 pandemic, to the inflation spiral in 2021, and now. History tells me that when central banks start signaling "less hawkishness" while also expressing unease about "premature easing," the real volatility often just begins. The market tends to interpret rate cut expectations simply as positive, but in reality, this precisely indicates that the valuation support for risk assets is more fragile than imagined.

Projects and assets that survived during high interest rate periods will face new tests in the rate-cut cycle—that’s the lesson the cycle has left me.