#数字资产市场动态 December 25 Market Observation: Trading Strategies Amid the Holiday Liquidity Dilemma

The holiday mode is activated, and the market presents a seemingly calm picture — but this calmness is deceiving. Technical indicators are weak, liquidity is drying up, and combined shocks from year-end unexpected events are at play. These three forces are quietly contending. Behind the narrow fluctuations, it’s actually a brief "hibernation" of bulls and bears during the holidays; the true directional decision won’t come until the first week of 2026.

From the data, $BTC’s core range is locked between 86,000-89,000, while $ETH hovers around 2,880-3,050. But don’t be fooled by this "stability" — the expiration of options on Thursday and Friday, coupled with liquidity exhaustion, could trigger sharp two-way volatility, which is a risk that must be guarded against.

The current core strategy is quite simple: risk management takes precedence over profit chasing. Set up rebound signals at support levels ($BTC 86,000-86,500, $ETH 2,900-2,880), and prepare for pullbacks at resistance levels ($BTC 88,000-88,500, $ETH 3,000-3,050). Strict stop-losses are essential, as holiday liquidity contraction can amplify volatility several times over.

The real turning point will be the New Year. The return of institutional funds, the recovery of ETF capital flow data, and the game of macro policy expectations for the new year — these three variables will jointly shape the market landscape. At that time, the key focus will be whether $BTC can hold above 89,000 and effectively challenge 90,000, and whether $ETH can recover above 3,050 and return above 3,000.

The current "calm before the storm" is actually the market gearing up for the closing of 2025 and the start of 2026. Now is not the time to predict rises or falls, but to prepare ammunition and clear strategies for potential sharp volatility after the holiday.