#美联储降息预期 Seeing this wave of rate cuts, I have to speak my mind. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, yet the market became even more chaotic — this is the most warning sign to watch out for.

Rate cuts should stimulate risk assets, but instead Bitcoin didn't rise and fell, Oracle's earnings report was immediately dumped, and Nasdaq futures also dropped. What does this indicate? It shows that the market isn't lacking liquidity; what it truly lacks are genuine growth expectations and cash flow support. What about those voices claiming "rate cuts will trigger a Christmas rally"? How do they look now? They've been proven wrong.

What’s more heartbreaking is that institutions are quietly accumulating coins — since December, smart money holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC has increased by 42,000 coins, but retail investors are still cutting losses. This is the same old trick I’ve seen countless times: institutions are positioning at the bottom, while retail panic sells at the top. The support level at $88,500 is about to be tested; if it breaks below $85,000, that critical line, there’s not much left to watch.

The lesson from history is that policy shifts do not equal opportunities. Real opportunities come from well-founded projects and genuine use cases that are wrongly killed, not from guessing macro expectations. The current situation is a structural selling pressure, not a technical correction. As the old saying goes: surviving longer is more important than making quick money.