#通胀与经济增长 When I saw Timiraos' article, the scene that flashed through my mind was the night before the 2015 rate hike cycle. Back then, it was the same—divided voices within the Federal Reserve, external pressures mounting, and the market waiting for a clear signal.

The three paths to rate cuts are discussed frankly, but they also reveal the harsh realities. Waiting for inflation to decline? That takes time, and political pressures will never give economists enough patience. Worsening labor market? That’s a desperate measure—no policymaker truly hopes to see unemployment soar just to cut rates. The third option is even more interesting—changing the composition of the Federal Reserve meeting room, which behind it is a direct power struggle.

Trump is like that raptor probing the fence—an apt metaphor. Historically, no president has challenged the Fed’s independence so directly, at least not in such a sustained and public manner. Nixon’s pressure on Burns in the 1970s, Volcker’s iron fist against inflation—these are reference points, but today’s pressures and methods are entirely different.

What I think of is that every wave of political forces eroding central bank independence ultimately costs the next generation. The moat may seem impregnable, but cracks in the system always start with human compromises. The rate cut path in 2026 ultimately depends on how long this wall can hold.