Last night, the market was in full swing, with a pace so fast that it was hard to keep up.

Gold just broke through $4,500 per ounce, and silver is following suit. This isn't an ordinary technical breakout; the underlying logic is even more worth pondering. Funds are flowing into both gold and Bitcoin simultaneously, seemingly as an early bet on rate cuts, but in reality, it's hedging against an uncertainty—the political pressure on the Federal Reserve.

The US leadership's attitude has recently changed. The public demand is straightforward: "Agree with my view to become chairman, and rate cuts must happen even in good economic times." The Fed's independence is facing challenges, a rare direct intervention seen in recent years. The economic advisory team is also echoing: rate cuts are already seriously lagging.

But this is the paradox of the market. On the same day, initial jobless claims came out—214,000, hitting a three-year low, unexpectedly strong. This should support a hawkish stance and maintain high interest rates. The market's reaction? Directly lowering expectations for rate cuts; the probability of no rate cut before March has already exceeded 50%.

It seems that data and politics are at odds, but the flow of funds is very clear: politics will ultimately override data. When monetary policy becomes a political tool, traditional economic logic begins to fail. The synchronized rise of Bitcoin and gold actually reflects the market's collective confidence that "loose policy will eventually come."

The real key point is May 2026. If Powell steps down, the attitude of the new chair will determine how aggressive the upcoming easing cycle will be and how long it can last. When policy uncertainty becomes dominant, volatility is no longer just a risk but becomes the norm. This may be the new environment that the future crypto market needs to adapt to.