Recently, this pattern of ups and downs, sharp surges and plunges, and needle-like movements back and forth has been tormenting many short-sellers—profits suddenly expand and then vanish instantly, stop-losses triggered repeatedly. After experiencing several cycles of “gaining and losing, losing and gaining,” most people instinctively choose to close their positions and wait when the price returns near their cost basis, rather than continuing to stubbornly short. Because after going through this process three times, most no longer believe they will have such good luck again. Unless you are the type of stubborn trader who holds on to the end, most people will have this self-protection mechanism.

With only 7 days left until the end of 2025, the crypto market’s fear and greed index remains stuck in extreme fear, and market confidence is as fragile as a thin ice layer. Bitcoin is stumbling to hold support levels between 86,000 and 90,000 USD, looking barely stable but actually on the brink of collapse. I especially want to remind new entrants not to hold onto the fantasy of a miraculous rebound by the end of the year. Major funds have long since withdrawn, European and American institutions are busy celebrating Christmas holidays, and the entire market’s buying momentum has become weak and unresponsive. The liquidity risk around the holiday season is truly worth highlighting—US stock markets are either closed or half-closed, and the activity of funds in the crypto market will directly plunge. During such times, sudden needle-like price movements are most likely to occur, catching both bulls and bears off guard.

Looking back to 2025, it’s not an exaggeration to call it a year of BTC distribution. The $300 billion of dormant Bitcoin has re-entered the market, and most of the year has seen oscillations and declines. ETFs have been continuously net outflows, and these signals have already clearly indicated the trend. The institutions and veteran players who positioned themselves from 2022 to 2023 have now completed a handsome transfer of chips at high levels between 100,000 and 120,000 USD. For them, this game is now coming to an end. But the market has always had people exiting and others entering. For institutions and long-term investors looking to position for the next cycle, January next year might be a good window. After enduring this liquidity drought and selling pressure at the end of the year, new opportunities could be just around the corner.