Four Witch Days Settlement Timeline Cheat Sheet: Master the Market Turmoil on These Four Days

For investors actively trading US stocks, Quadruple Witching Day is an unavoidable key term. Every year, there are four specific dates when market trading volume surges and price fluctuations become unusually intense, prompting many to ask: what exactly happens on these four days? Why should we pay special attention?

The Truth About Quadruple Witching Day: Four Major Derivatives Settling Simultaneously

The so-called Quadruple Witching Day refers to the dates when four major derivative financial products in the US stock market settle simultaneously—single stock futures, single stock options, stock index futures, and stock index options. These four instruments expire and settle at the same time, as if an invisible force pulls futures prices and spot prices together.

Because this settlement mechanism has nothing to do with company fundamentals and is purely driven by market structural factors, it can cause sharp price swings that disconnect from the underlying fundamentals. The term “Witch” in the name originates from this—appearing magical and unpredictable price movements.

Quadruple Witching occurs four times a year, specifically on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December, which is also the standard quarterly settlement cycle in the US derivatives market.

Quick Reference Table for 2024 Quadruple Witching Settlement Dates

Investors must remember these four key dates and manage their positions in advance:

Special reminder: If trading with leverage, the risks around these dates will significantly increase. Be sure to carefully control your position sizes.

Why Does Quadruple Witching Day Trigger Market Volatility?

Typically, three phenomena occur on Quadruple Witching Day:

1. Trading Volume Explodes, Price Fluctuations Amplify

Since all four derivatives face settlement pressure simultaneously, a large number of traders and institutional funds concentrate their buy and sell activities on this day, often reaching some of the highest trading volumes of the year.

2. Panic Index Soars, Chips Exchange Hands Rapidly

Short-term speculators, hedgers, and large capital operators accelerate their entry or exit on this day. Market turnover increases dramatically, making price trends difficult to predict.

3. Stock Prices Deviate from Fundamentals

The settlement principle of futures contracts determines this: as futures approaches expiration, prices must converge to the spot price. Large funds aiming for maximum profit will deliberately push the spot price higher or lower to move the settlement price in their favor.

The Final Critical Moment for Quadruple Witching Settlement Time

Market participants pay special attention to the last hour before the close on Quadruple Witching Day because the settlement price is often calculated based on the average spot price during the last hour of trading—this period is also called the “Quadruple Witching Hour.”

Large funds tend to act most aggressively during this period. According to historical data, in a bullish cycle (such as the current environment benefiting from the AI boom), market makers often push up stock prices on Quadruple Witching Day. Data shows that 88% of stocks that rise during Quadruple Witching are followed by a decline within the next week, with the S&P 500 averaging a pullback of about 1.2%.

Different Investment Strategies for Quadruple Witching Day

Long-term investors: Can Ignore the Volatility

If your investment horizon is measured in years, the short-term volatility on Quadruple Witching Day is insignificant. Stock prices will ultimately revert to fundamentals; short-term chips movements cannot change the long-term value of a company.

Short-term Traders: An Opportunity

For traders focused on chips, the week around Quadruple Witching Day offers excellent opportunities. Oversold stocks can be bought for a rally, overbought stocks can be shorted. As long as you stick to strict discipline and trade quickly, you can profit from these fluctuations. But remember, this type of trading is unrelated to fundamentals; set stop-loss orders and never bet against the market.

2024 Outlook for Investment During Quadruple Witching

This year, the US stock market continues to benefit from the AI bull cycle, with no significant reversal signals in sight in the short term. Therefore, it is expected that the pattern of mostly upward movement during upcoming Quadruple Witching Days will persist. Investors should closely monitor market developments.

Additionally, if participating via derivatives, it is advisable to提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前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