The structural reversal of TGE: Is it a "liability" that gets liquidated or an "asset" that remains?

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For a long time, TGE (Token Generation Event) has been regarded as the “finish line” in Crypto. However, after a series of narrative collapses and liquidity shortages, this logic is undergoing a structural reversal.

With regulatory frameworks taking shape and institutional forces participating, we may see a larger wave of TGE.

As 2026 approaches, we are in a critical period of transformation in the Crypto market.

In this market context, TGE has become an “adulthood ceremony” filled with anticipation but also intense pain for each project.

In this cycle, when we observe and discuss the significance, quantity, frequency, and changes of TGE (Token Generation Event), we find that: Crypto is shifting from “valuation discovery” to “value discovery” across the board.

2025 - 2026: A Year of TGE Boom and Structural Predictions

Driven by regulatory details (such as the US SEC, EU MiCA) and capital market cycle forecasts, 2026 is highly likely to become a “big year” for TGE explosions.

From a macro perspective, the increased clarity of regulation, the maturity of institutional products like ETFs and futures, all suggest that the “macro rhythm” of TGE events is broadly defined by “when is it suitable for TGE?” providing a wide time window.

By the end of 2025, many projects are focused on making their Token structures compliant and have pre-locked investors; some projects have also proactively delayed to 2026, indicating expectations for the market window that year. This suggests that 2026 could be a peak issuance period, serving as a window for TGE and liquidity release, with an expected increase of 15%–30% in TGE numbers compared to 2025.

However, a surge in TGE quantity does not mean opportunities are everywhere.

2026 is a “supply-heavy year,” during which we will face: unlocking of many old projects, backlog of delayed TGE from 2024–2025, and possibly new narrative projects’ TGE. In this scenario, market tolerance for “new TGE” is decreasing.

On one hand, more compliant and institutionally-oriented projects will enter; on the other hand, concentrated TGE from new projects will lead to extreme liquidity scarcity.

From a more mesoscopic perspective, 2026 may see a dual increase in both the quantity and quality of TGE, with this “improvement” accompanied by significant volatility.

At a micro level, the essence of TGE has changed. In past cycles, TGE could be defined as a marketing activity where “returns exceed costs”:

Costs: Airdrop pressures, liquidity initially siphoned off by CEXs, and short-term predictable selling pressure.

Returns: Market attention, brand reputation, early users.

Currently, market attention is dispersed, and the costs and difficulties of branding are increasing. “Early users” are less concerned with the product itself and more with Token monetization, heavily relying on incentives. This means that the cost and benefit structure of TGE has undergone a fundamental reversal.

“The ‘Token first, then product’ path is gradually failing”

Compared to previous cycles, public chains relied on Tokens and grand narratives to build distribution advantages, then channel traffic into ecosystems, and finally develop applications.

This pathway is failing:

Narratives require PMF (Product-Market Fit): Liquidity no longer blindly follows narratives; it requires “truth-seeking.” If TGE occurs before reaching PMF, then the Token is more like a costly debt that needs to be repaid; before and after TGE, the team’s energy and morale may be drained by internal conflicts.

Cold starts within the same track are gradually being diluted: In the future, Token-based cold starts may only be effective for pioneers in the track (such as top public chains capable of cycling through phases, and the Hyperliquidity in the Perp DEX track). For subsequent imitators, attention will be quickly diluted, and liquidity will not multiply.

Misaligned with exchange goals: The core of exchanges is trading fees, aiming for “more assets, better.” If projects pursue long-term development, their goals are not aligned. The essence of TGE is not just a marketing event but also a stress test for the entire team.

If 2026 is a brutal year of competition, how should projects view TGE?

Narrative as consensus, not just technical parameters: Don’t obsess over TPS or ZK-rollup specs; instead, answer: what is the community’s “consensus,” or “religion”? And how does the product solve specific pain points?

Seed communities: The first 100 real users are more important than the first 100 holders. Many tech communities show this well: these users often provide the most genuine feedback and suggestions, and can cheaply help test and iterate towards PMF.

Post-TGE sustainable strategies: When most projects die after the “good news” of listing fades, projects need sustainable planning. For example, retaining “marketing” ammunition, transforming “expectation-driven” into “event-driven”; building a real ecosystem through grants and other programs; providing long-term depth and value.

Dynamic balance of economic models: Reasonable unlocking mechanisms to reduce initial sell pressure; emulating successful secondary market projects by generating real income through products to buy back Tokens, supporting value without relying on sentiment.

Future projects need to carefully plan in areas such as product delivery, Token economy design, market timing, community building, differentiated narratives, and compliance transparency to stand out during future TGE-intensive periods.

Conclusion: Survival Rules for 2026

Some TGE failures are not due to product quality or team experience but stem from a lack of resilience in facing market scrutiny, peer competition, and narrative shifts. Rushing to launch before being ready for open market competition and narrative change will only backfire.

In 2026, the market is likely to fall into a cycle of “intensive TGE issuance, value volatility and collapse, market restructuring,” with those blindly chasing high prices ultimately facing liquidity shortages.

What needs to be recognized is: Tokens are no longer synonymous with growth, and narratives cannot generate value out of thin air.

A successful TGE is not measured by listing or volatility, but by whether the team has the capacity to “pay off debts” before TGE—i.e., whether they have found a PMF that can generate sustainable cash flow or real users.

This harsh transformation back to value is essentially market self-purification, opening more fertile ground for long-termists.