Ethereum struggles to hold $2,850 as selling pressure from the US resumes… network activity plummets as well

Continuous Net Outflows from US Spot ETF, Accelerating Fund Withdrawals of Millions of Dollars

The bearish trend of Ethereum(ETH) is becoming increasingly clear. There have been three consecutive days of net outflows from US spot Ethereum ETFs, with a total withdrawal of $224.78 million. Since December 10, the total net assets of similar products have shrunk from $21.43 billion to $18.27 billion, indicating ongoing capital outflows.

Even Coinbase Premium Index has fallen into negative territory. This means that trading prices on US exchanges are lower than on Binance, reflecting strong selling sentiment among US-based investors. As macroeconomic conditions shake again due to worsening employment indicators, increasing caution toward risk assets, this trend has become more pronounced.

Network Activity Plummets, Trading Volume Retreats to July Lows

Signals on the chain also support the bearish outlook. Weekly active addresses(weekly active addresses), which reached 440,000 in early December, have decreased by 116,000 to 324,000. This is the lowest level seen since May. At the same time, transaction counts have also fallen to July lows, indicating a general slowdown in network activity.

The decline in active addresses and transaction counts suggests “a spreading sentiment of caution and weakening new demand.” In such an environment, prices typically follow one of two paths: either further decline or sideways movement to buy time. Ultimately, for prices to rise again, trading and usage demand must return.

Warnings in Derivatives Market, Nearly $100 Million Long Liquidations

Long position liquidations have been prominent in the volatility market. Over the past 24 hours, ETH liquidation amounted to $101.4 million, with long liquidations accounting for $73.6 million. This indicates that positions expecting prices to rise have been heavily liquidated, increasing short-term psychological pressure.

Technical Outlook: Success in Holding $2,850 Still Leaves Bearish Bias

The price rebounded once from the $2,850 support level. RSI remains below the neutral line, continuing a downward trend, indicating strong bearish momentum. However, the stochastic indicator has fallen into oversold territory, opening the possibility of a short-term technical rebound.

The upside resistance is at $3,100. If the price recovers and stabilizes intraday above this level, a more sustained rebound could begin, with a target of up to $3,470. Conversely, if the price breaks below $2,850 on a daily basis, the next support zones are likely in the $2,400–$2,600 range.

Current Challenges for ETH: Overcoming Network Slowdown and US Capital Outflows

Ethereum is under dual pressure. The decline in on-chain activity and capital outflows from the US are happening simultaneously. Whether it can hold at $2,850 or regain $3,100 will be key indicators for its short-term direction.