NVIDIA's earnings beat expectations, boosting confidence, with the market rebound momentum beginning to show, and crypto assets experiencing volatility adjustments

Market Overview

On Wednesday, global stock markets showed mixed performance. U.S. stocks continued their rebound, with all three major indices closing higher. The Nasdaq led the gains, rising 0.59%; the S&P 500 increased 0.38%; the Dow Jones rose slightly by 0.10%. European markets faced downward pressure, with the UK FTSE 100 down 0.47%, France CAC 40 down 0.18%, and Germany DAX down 0.08%.

In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar continued its upward trend, breaking the 100 mark to 100.1. The Japanese yen was under significant pressure, with the USD/JPY rising over 1% to 157.18, hitting a more than ten-month high. This dollar appreciation mainly reflects market expectations of a slowdown in the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts.

In crypto assets, Bitcoin hovered near the $90,000 level, down 1.55% over 24 hours, currently quoted at $87.52K; Ethereum faced greater adjustment pressure, down 3.16% over 24 hours, quoted at $2.94K.

NVIDIA’s Earnings Significantly Surpass Expectations, Reversing AI Bubble Concerns

AI chip leader NVIDIA(NVIDIA) reported a Q3 financial highlight, becoming a key driver of Wednesday’s stock market rally. The company’s net profit for Q3 grew 65% YoY to $31.91 billion, with earnings per share of $1.3, surpassing market expectations of $1.25; revenue reached $57.01 billion, exceeding analyst estimates of $55.19 billion.

Among these, data center revenue hit $51.2 billion, up 66% YoY, far exceeding the market forecast of $49.34 billion. This achievement fully reflects the sustained strong demand for AI infrastructure investments. NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang pointed out that sales of the Blackwell architecture far exceeded expectations, with cloud GPU sales now fully sold out, and Blackwell Ultra chips becoming the company’s main architecture, with GB300 chips accounting for about two-thirds of Blackwell product revenue.

NVIDIA expects Q4 revenue to reach $65 billion, higher than the analyst estimate of $61.66 billion; gross margins(GAAP and Non-GAAP) are 74.8% and 75.0%, respectively. CFO Colette Kress also revealed that the group aims to achieve $500 billion in revenue from Blackwell and Rubin chip plans.

Market reaction to NVIDIA’s earnings was extremely positive, with shares rising over 6% after hours on Wednesday and closing the day up 2.9%. Reuters commented that NVIDIA’s quarterly results “confirm that the AI revolution is still advancing strongly,” helping to ease market concerns about a prolonged AI bubble.

Mixed Performance of Tech Giants, Google Posts Largest Two-Month Gain

Large tech stocks showed mixed performance this week. Alphabet(Alphabet) surged after receiving industry praise for its newly released Gemini 3 AI model, with intraday gains of up to 6.9% and hitting a record high; the stock also received support from Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway’s Q3 holdings, further boosting investor confidence.

Microsoft(Microsoft) and Meta Platforms performed poorly, down 1.35% and 1.23%, respectively; Apple(Apple) rose slightly by 0.42%; Amazon(Amazon) increased 0.06%. NVIDIA itself rose 2.85% on Wednesday.

Divergence Worsens Within the Federal Reserve, December Rate Cut Probability Significantly Declines

The October Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes revealed serious disagreements among policymakers. While some officials considered a further rate cut in December, the minutes clearly stated that many officials believed no rate cut should be made in December, and most participants thought no cut was necessary before the end of this year.

The core disagreement among officials centers on the current degree of monetary policy tightening. Some believe that even a 25 bps rate cut would still be too restrictive for the economy; others, citing economic resilience, argue that policy is not overly tight. Additionally, officials warned that a sharp revaluation of AI investments could lead to disorderly declines in the stock market.

CME FedWatch data reflects this disagreement: the probability of a 25 bps rate cut in December has dropped sharply from 48.9% to 32.7%, with the probability of holding rates steady rising to 67.3%. Looking ahead to January next year, the probability of a 25 bps cut is 49.9%, with a 33.8% chance of no change, and a 16.3% chance of a 50 bps cut.

Goldman Sachs President John Waldron(John Waldron) believes that the current market correction is healthy and expects further declines. He also pointed out that the market is overly focused on AI, and whether capital returns can meet expectations or are already reflected in prices remains uncertain.

Employment Data Postponed, Trade Deficit Significantly Narrowed

Due to federal government budget shortfalls, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics(BLS) decided to cancel the October non-farm payroll report, with related data to be incorporated into the November employment report, which has been rescheduled for release on December 16. The JOLTS(Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) for October has also been postponed to December 9.

Another key economic indicator shows that the U.S. goods and services trade deficit in August was $59.6 billion, a decrease of $18.6 billion or 23.9% MoM. Exports of goods and services increased slightly by 0.1% to $280.8 billion, while imports decreased by 5.1% to $340.4 billion. The narrowing of the trade deficit mainly resulted from a $18.1 billion reduction in goods trade deficit to $85.6 billion, with a $11.3 billion decline in industrial raw materials imports.

Political Pressure Mounts, Trump Criticizes Fed Decisions

U.S. President Trump hinted at on Wednesday at the U.S.-Saudi Arabia Investment Forum that if Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent(Scott Bessent) cannot help push rates down, he will replace him. Trump stated that current interest rates are too high and reiterated his desire to dismiss Fed Chair Powell, calling him “severely incompetent.” However, Trump revealed that Bessent had advised against directly firing Powell, citing concerns that such action could shake market confidence and undermine investors’ trust in the Fed’s independence.

Chip Supply Chain Under Pressure, Server Memory Prices Face Upward Trend

Market research firm Counterpoint Research released a report indicating that NVIDIA has decided to replace traditional DDR5 with LPDDR( low-power memory chips) in AI servers to reduce power consumption costs. However, this move could cause server memory prices to double by the end of next year. The report notes that since a single AI server requires far more memory chips than smartphones, NVIDIA’s shift will lead to a sudden surge in demand, which the industry is not yet fully prepared to handle. As chip manufacturers weigh whether to adjust capacity to meet demand, tensions in the low-end market may spill over upward.

International Investment Cooperation Advances, Musk and NVIDIA Join Hands with Saudi Arabia

U.S. billionaire Elon Musk’s xAI announced a partnership with NVIDIA to jointly develop a 500 MW AI data center project in Saudi Arabia. Musk and NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang appeared at the Washington forum on Wednesday and delivered speeches, with U.S. President Trump also attending and speaking. Huang confirmed that NVIDIA is involved in building Saudi Arabia’s supercomputer center. This project reflects Saudi Arabia’s expanding investment in AI infrastructure. Trump previously announced that Saudi Arabia has increased its trade and investment commitments with the U.S. from $600 billion to $1 trillion.

Commodity Markets

Gold rose slightly by 0.24% to $4,077 per ounce, continuing its high-level consolidation; WTI crude oil fell 1.92% to $59.4 per barrel. The US 10-year Treasury yield increased 2 bps to 4.139%, reflecting market expectations of a slowdown in rate cuts.

Hong Kong Stock Index Futures

Hang Seng Index night futures stand at 25,820 points, down 11 points from yesterday’s close; China Enterprises Index night futures at 9,140 points, also down 11 points compared to yesterday’s close.