2025-12-25 00:23:38

The story of rate cuts has fallen apart. The Federal Reserve just signaled a "dovish" stance, only to reveal its "hawkish" nature— the dot plot clearly indicates only one rate cut opportunity before 2026, causing market expectations to completely reverse.

What’s more upsetting is that political pressure is secretly stabbing from behind the scenes. Authorities are becoming increasingly blunt about the Fed Chair’s remarks, criticizing everything from interest rate levels to institutional spending, and even subtly hinting at possible personnel changes. If this shakes the Fed’s independence, long-term US Treasury yields could continue to rise—currently stuck at 4.2%, breaking through 4.5% is not out of the realm of possibility.

The current situation is somewhat distorted: with the expectation of rate cuts gone, yields are still stubbornly high, relying solely on "rate cut" rhetoric in public opinion to stabilize market sentiment. Once real personnel adjustments occur, whether the bond market can absorb this shock remains an open question.

What does this mean for the crypto market? Liquidity anxiety is resurfacing, traditional financial volatility is intensifying, and this will inevitably disrupt the pricing logic of risk assets. Whether new market stories can emerge in this environment still depends on ongoing interactions between policy and market dynamics.

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

10 Likes

Reward
10
6
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

BuyTheTop

· 9h ago

Once again, a major collapse, the Federal Reserve actor is confirmed Rate cuts are not just about cutting leeks; the dot plot has been exposed How much longer can BTC hold up...

View OriginalReply0

notSatoshi1971

· 9h ago

Another good show, the Federal Reserve's back-and-forth skills are truly impressive. Where's the supposed dovish stance? The dot plot slapped me in the face faster. Political interference with central bank independence—this gets even more surreal when you look at it closely. The liquidity crunch still needs to be endured, brothers. It's not surprising that bond yields broke 4.5; now it's all about how personnel changes will stir things up. In crypto... the era of needing money has arrived. Is the Federal Reserve just pretending or are their powers really limited? I can't figure it out. High yields without rate cut expectations are quite strange. Stabilizing market sentiment through public opinion, huh? That's a bit funny. The logic of risk asset pricing needs to be rewritten; changing currencies won't save us. Personnel adjustments are the real knife; all current statements are just smoke screens. From 4.2 to 4.5, it's been only these two years, and I'm mentally prepared. Traditional finance is breaking through; can crypto bottom out or will it keep falling? In this twisted situation, the liquidity war has just begun.

View OriginalReply0

zkNoob

· 9h ago

The Federal Reserve is once again putting on a show, with dovish on the left hand and hawkish on the right hand—this move is absolutely brilliant. Really, political interference with the independence of the central bank will have endless repercussions. If interest rate cuts eliminate liquidity, our crypto circle will be affected again—an obvious case of collateral damage. I don't think the bond market will have much trouble reaching 4.5; after all, the Americans have been doing this all along. If this personnel change truly materializes, the entire pricing logic will need to be reconstructed, and all risk assets will have to be re-evaluated. During the dollar's strength era, liquidity anxiety in crypto has indeed returned. When the dot plot was released, the market was confused—this is probably the opposite of expectations management. The chaos in traditional finance is directly transmitted to the crypto world; as risk assets, we are the first to suffer. The narrative of reassuring the market through public opinion—how long can it last? Sooner or later, we have to face reality. The increasing politicization of the Federal Reserve is becoming more obvious, and in the long run, it's not a good sign for the entire market.

View OriginalReply0

EthMaximalist

· 9h ago

It's the same old Fed tricks. As soon as the dot plot showing rate cuts is released, the game is over. High-interest environmentalists are starting to shift blame. The days of liquidity surges might have to wait. If 4.5% really arrives, crypto will be wiped out. No one will trade coins, only US Treasuries. If this wave of political intervention really hits, the crypto world will be forced to learn how to withstand pressure. Wake up, everyone. The narrative of rate cuts is dead. Now it's about who can survive and come out alive.

View OriginalReply0

PensionDestroyer

· 9h ago

Coming back to trick us into bottom fishing? One rate cut and it's over, we've seen this routine too many times. Biden wants to influence the Federal Reserve Chair, it's truly incredible. Political interference in finance never leads to good outcomes. When liquidity dries up, everyone has to kneel, Bitcoin is no exception and must face it. Speaking of this bond market rally to 4.5%, traditional finance will be much worse off, and we might even have a chance. Public opinion to stabilize the market? Wake up, everyone. This is just a prelude to cutting the leeks. Holding on to high yields? Basically, no one dares to bottom fish. Let's wait and see. The independence of the Federal Reserve—messing this up would damage the credibility of the entire financial system. Instead of worrying about the bond market, think about where our money can hide. Only one rate cut in 2026? Then we still have to endure, but the crypto circle can't hold on. Political stabs + economic deadlock—this situation is not far from a major event.

View OriginalReply0