Christmas Eve this wave of market movement indeed gave us quite a few surprises. The long position of over 2890 that was accumulated was successfully filled after the US stock market opened. Currently holding the position, I have already locked in a 60-point profit, with a return of 210%. But honestly, the volatility this time was much larger than I expected.

Looking at the technical aspects of the market now, the overall pattern remains oscillating and somewhat bearish. The moving average system is a bit messy; MA5(2950.08) is slightly above MA10(2947.18), and while the price is still above MA20(2938.36), the short-term moving averages are tangled tightly.

The MACD momentum is still decent; DIF(4.41) is above DEA(3.06), with a positive histogram of 1.35, indicating that the bulls still have some strength, although the momentum is clearly waning. The Bollinger Bands also reveal some clues; the price is stuck above the middle band at 2938.36, approaching the upper band at 2962.54, with a %B of 0.67%. The price is in the upper middle area, leaving some room for upward movement but with increasing pressure.

The RSI situation is relatively neutral; RSI6(52.09), RSI12(55.02), and RSI14(54.63) are all above 50 in the bullish zone, but not in overbought territory, indicating the rally isn't aggressive enough. The KDJ indicator shows some issues; the K value(52.32) is being suppressed by the D value(63.79), and the J value is only 29.38, with a clear death cross, hinting that short-term correction pressure is building.

On the capital flow side, the rate(0.00658700% is at a neutral level, and the bullish and bearish sentiments haven't reached extremes. The volume shows signs of recent active selling, especially when the price bottomed at 2886.75, with high trading activity, indicating strong buying support below. The flow of contract funds is interesting; on the short cycle)5 minutes to 1 hour(, there is a net outflow, but on the medium to long cycle)4 hours to 24 hours, it turns into a net inflow, suggesting that large funds still maintain a relatively optimistic outlook for the future.

Overall, I lean towards cautious shorting. The specific approach is: wait for the price to rebound to the resistance zone of 2955-2960, then gradually establish short positions in batches. Place the stop-loss at around 2985 USDT, about 1.3% risk. The target is 2915-2900 USDT, aiming for a profit of about 1.5% to 2.5%.

However, a special reminder is that the market is at a critical crossroads right now. Be sure to strictly control position risk. Keep a close eye on the key support level at 2936; if the price effectively breaks below it, consider adding to short positions. Conversely, if the price volume breaks through 2970, stop-loss immediately and reassess the overall market direction.