Gulfport Energy Market Differentiation: What Are Major Institutions Doing?

Mizuho maintained a neutral rating on Gulfport Energy (NYSE: GPOR) on December 12, but behind this decision, the actions of institutional investors were far from calm.

Analysts are optimistic, but it's just optimism.

According to the latest data, Gulfport Energy's average target price is $232.92 per share, representing a potential upside of 13.63% compared to the current price of $204.99. Analysts have set a target price range from $202.00 to $273.00, reflecting varying opinions in the market about this energy company. Annual revenue is expected to reach $1,840 million, a year-on-year increase of 49.39%, with a non-GAAP EPS expected to be 58.97.

These numbers look good, but Mizuho's “neutral” stance indicates that analysts are still on the sidelines — this is a typical “neither bearish nor particularly bullish” attitude.

Institutional Investors in Polarization

Interestingly, the institutional holdings in the Gulfport market show that 651 funds or institutions hold GPOR shares, a decrease of 13 compared to the previous quarter. Overall, the average allocation of institutions to GPOR is 0.34%. Although there was a slight increase (+4.77%), the total number of shares held by institutions increased by 12.59% to 25.574 million shares over the past three months.

It seems that institutions have not fully retreated, but the increase in holdings is also quite limited.

Big Players' “Different Ideas”

The most interesting aspect is the changes in positions of major institutions - they are making completely opposite choices:

Silver Point Capital significantly increased its holdings, from 1.997 million shares to 3.741 million shares, with its shareholding ratio jumping from 9.8% to 19.36%, a quarterly position increase of 24.65%. This is a clear bullish signal.

In contrast, other large institutions are much more conservative. Wellington Management Group reduced its holdings by 158,000 shares, from 783K to 725K, a decrease of 7.95%, and in the quarter, it further cut 88.63% of its position allocation. Macquarie Group is also withdrawing, with its shares dropping from 658K to 506K, a reduction of 30.01%.

Jennison Associates and Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund have slightly increased their holdings, but their position allocation has actually decreased, indicating that they are passively tracking the index or managing risk rather than actively increasing their positions.

Bullish or Bearish? The Market Has Given Its Answer

The GPOR put/call ratio is 0.43, a number that reflects the overall bullish sentiment of the market—after all, the lower the ratio, the more optimistic it is.

However, from the perspective of institutional behavior, this is not a consistent bullish stance. The aggressive increase in positions by Silver Point Capital contrasts with the active reduction of holdings by Wellington and Macquarie, reflecting the real game between buyers and sellers in the Gulfport market. Large funds are at odds, small funds are on the sidelines, and analysts are playing the “neutral” card for safety.

In this situation, the 13.63% upside potential of GPOR sounds enticing, but be careful—divergent actions by institutions suggest that this upside may not be guaranteed.