The Metals Company's Rally Surges on U.S. Critical Minerals Push

A Policy-Driven Recovery Takes Shape

The Metals Company (NASDAQ: TMC) has experienced a dramatic turnaround, posting a remarkable 470% gain through 2025 and climbing 16% over the past month alone. After tumbling over 50% from its mid-October peak, the stock’s resurgence tells a story less about operational breakthroughs and more about shifting geopolitical priorities reshaping the sector’s outlook.

Why Washington’s Attention Matters for Deep-Sea Mining

The catalyst behind TMC’s recent momentum traces back to April, when the White House issued an executive order specifically targeting offshore critical minerals and deep-sea resources. Framed around “national security” concerns, the directive explicitly called for accelerating “responsible development of seabed mineral resources.” For a company like The Metals Company that has already demonstrated functional deep-sea mining technology, this represented a significant policy tailwind.

Prior to this federal backing, TMC faced a critical roadblock. While the company had proven its technical capabilities, it remained blocked by regulatory uncertainty—specifically, the lack of approval from the International Seabed Authority (ISA) to extract minerals commercially from the ocean floor. More pressing still, the ISA has yet to finalize a comprehensive regulatory framework for commercial seabed mining, leaving companies in limbo regarding projects worth billions in potential resources.

The U.S. Path Around Traditional Constraints

Here’s where geopolitical dynamics create opportunity. The United States never ratified the treaty establishing the ISA, meaning it could theoretically pursue its own interests independent of the agency’s framework. While this approach carries long-term political risks, it currently offers TMC a potential pathway to commence commercial operations sooner than the international regulatory process would permit.

This urgency is amplified by America’s strategic pivot away from Chinese dependency. The administration has cultivated a network of critical minerals partnerships with allies including Australia, Japan, Thailand, and Malaysia. The Metals Company stands positioned as a potential domestic resource pillar within this realigned supply chain architecture.

The Caveat: No Revenue Yet

Despite the optimistic outlook reflected in its stock performance, The Metals Company remains a speculative investment. The company currently generates zero commercial revenue. Its value proposition rests entirely on the assumption that regulatory approval materializes and that deep-sea mineral extraction becomes economically viable at scale within the envisioned timeframe.

Investors betting on TMC are, in essence, backing a future scenario—one where policy momentum translates into operational reality and where geopolitical trends maintain consistent pressure on mineral diversification away from China. The stock’s popping performance reflects this optimism, but the company’s fundamental transition from exploration-stage asset to revenue-generating enterprise remains largely unproven.