In late December, Ethereum exhibited an interesting situation. You will notice that the price is falling, trading volume is higher trade volumes, but holdings are actually increasing—this seems contradictory, but there are three forces at play behind the scenes.

Let's break down the participants in the market. The old bears take profits at high levels, new bears follow the trend and short when they see a breakdown, while bottom-fishing bulls buy at key psychological levels. The presence of these three forces leads to price being hedged, so even if the bears want to push it down, they can't. The core question now is: how much longer can the bulls hold out?

From a technical perspective, the EMA5, EMA10, and EMA20 of the 15k period are all under pressure. Although a relatively long lower shadow was drawn after breaking down at 2899, the Trading Volume has begun to decline, indicating that the first phase of the fall is coming to an end. Next, we should enter a period of consolidation and experience a rebound.

In terms of operations, you can consider shorting 2x leverage near 2940, with a take-profit target looking at 2900 - breaking new lows, and setting a stop-loss at 2980. It is particularly important to note that after the US stock market opens, Ether tends to follow the fall and not the rise, so be cautious with position management and avoid excessive leverage.