Gold has reached a new historical high again. But this time, what is truly worth following is not just the precious metal itself, but the trap of the "funds rotation pattern" that has been verified multiple times behind it.
Look closely at history: in 2016 and 2020, during each round of global liquidity flooding, the actions of capital were remarkably consistent. Gold took off first, and when it was driven to overheating and overbought sentiment peaked, smart money began to quietly shift hands—turning to Bitcoin, unleashing a more aggressive rally.
What's happening now? The Federal Reserve has started cutting interest rates, the Treasury is buying bonds, and central banks around the world are easing... The familiar rhythm has returned. Gold has skyrocketed, but Bitcoin is still "preparing its work".
What does this mean? The moment when gold's extreme overbought conditions gradually "cool down" could be the window for capital to shift towards digital assets and start the next legendary round. Some analyses point out that if Bitcoin captures just 30% of gold's market value, the price could reach the level of $450,000.
The underlying logic is actually very clear: in an era of ample liquidity, capital is always looking for the "container with the highest return." Gold is the old consensus, so it is always the first to be thought of; Bitcoin is the new paradigm, and as the consensus continues to spread, the intensity of value reassessment will be even greater.
The problem is—whether it’s gold or Bitcoin, the ups and downs can be described as a roller coaster. The real question investors face emerges: while chasing such large-scale rotation opportunities, how to place those assets that are unwilling to be tossed around? Especially in the crypto ecosystem, this issue becomes more urgent and complex.
This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
12 Likes
Reward
12
2
Repost
Share
Comment
0/400
OnchainHolmes
· 12-23 16:50
Gold has peaked, BTC is To da moon, this act has indeed been performed more than once.
Wait, how is the 450,000 figure calculated? It feels a bit optimistic.
The key question remains—when will the real smart money buy the dip, and when do we enter a position?
View OriginalReply0
TokenomicsDetective
· 12-23 16:49
Gold has indeed reached a new high, but I feel that the logic behind this wave of rotation has been overly packaged. History always repeats itself, but never the same; is the current macro environment really the same as in 2016 and 2020? That's worth questioning.
The figure of 450,000 US dollars sounds quite appealing, but the assumption of capturing 30% of gold's market capitalization is fundamentally unsound. If Bitcoin could truly rise so linearly, it would have already gone to the moon. The pattern of capital shifting does exist, but the premise is that people still have confidence in rotation. In the current situation, it might just be a rhythm where capital is trying to squeeze its way out.
Rather than being entangled in when gold will turn towards Bitcoin, it's better to think about those assets that don't want to be tossed around and have nowhere to go. Stablecoins? Pfft. Mainstream public chain tokens? That's even more of a joke. Anyway, I'm just watching for now and not taking action.
Gold has reached a new historical high again. But this time, what is truly worth following is not just the precious metal itself, but the trap of the "funds rotation pattern" that has been verified multiple times behind it.
Look closely at history: in 2016 and 2020, during each round of global liquidity flooding, the actions of capital were remarkably consistent. Gold took off first, and when it was driven to overheating and overbought sentiment peaked, smart money began to quietly shift hands—turning to Bitcoin, unleashing a more aggressive rally.
What's happening now? The Federal Reserve has started cutting interest rates, the Treasury is buying bonds, and central banks around the world are easing... The familiar rhythm has returned. Gold has skyrocketed, but Bitcoin is still "preparing its work".
What does this mean? The moment when gold's extreme overbought conditions gradually "cool down" could be the window for capital to shift towards digital assets and start the next legendary round. Some analyses point out that if Bitcoin captures just 30% of gold's market value, the price could reach the level of $450,000.
The underlying logic is actually very clear: in an era of ample liquidity, capital is always looking for the "container with the highest return." Gold is the old consensus, so it is always the first to be thought of; Bitcoin is the new paradigm, and as the consensus continues to spread, the intensity of value reassessment will be even greater.
The problem is—whether it’s gold or Bitcoin, the ups and downs can be described as a roller coaster. The real question investors face emerges: while chasing such large-scale rotation opportunities, how to place those assets that are unwilling to be tossed around? Especially in the crypto ecosystem, this issue becomes more urgent and complex.