As of 2025-12-22 16:00 (UTC+8), BTC is currently at 88,750 USD, with a 24h fluctuation of 87,900-89,630 USD, showing a bearish trend, and a short-term rebound needs to break through with higher trade volumes for confirmation.

1. Key price levels (support/resistance)
• First support: 88,000 USD (24h low + previous low on the hourly chart), if broken, look at the second support 86,500 USD (daily MA30)
• First resistance: 89,500 USD (24h high + previous hour high), if broken, look for second resistance at 90,000 USD (psychological level + daily MA10)
• Key boundary: 88,500 USD, stabilizing bullish, losing ground bearish
2. Interpretation of Multi-Period Indicators
• Daily: RSI≈41 (neutral to weak), MACD bars weaken, double lines stick below the zero axis, bears dominate; price is between MA30 (86,500) and MA10 (90,000), trading volume shrinks, mainly fluctuating.
• 4 hours: The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, the price is below the middle band, the KDJ is turning up from a low position, there is a short-term rebound demand, but the trade volumes are insufficient, and the strength is limited.
• 2 hours: EMA5/10 intertwine, price moves flat along the middle track, oscillating slightly upwards, a breakout above 89,500 with higher trade volumes is needed to confirm a stronger trend.
Three, Trading Strategies (Executable)
1. Bullish Strategy
◦ Open position: Stabilize and go long when the price retraces to 88,200-88,400 USD, with a stop loss at 87,800 USD (break below 88,000 support).
◦ Target: First target 89,500 USD (reduce position by 50%), second target 90,000 USD (remaining take profit)
◦ Trigger: Close above 89,500 on the 4-hour chart with higher trade volumes, add to position at 90,000
2. Short-selling Strategy
◦ Opening position: Short when rebounding to 89,300-89,700 USD, with a stop loss at 90,200 USD (break 89,500 resistance)
◦ Target: First target 88,500 USD (reduce positions by 50%), second target 88,000 USD (remaining take profit)
◦ Trigger: Close below 88,000 for 2 hours with higher trade volumes, add position looking at 86,500
3. Wait-and-see conditions
• The price is fluctuating narrowly in the 88,500-89,300 range, with trading volume < 70% of the 24h average volume, waiting for a breakout direction.
4. Risk Warning
• Market fluctuation (US stocks/ETH weakening) may trigger a correlated decline, turning bearish if it breaks below 88,000.
• If it breaks through 89,500 but the volume is insufficient, be cautious of a false breakout, and take profits or stop losses in a timely manner.
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