Core situation assessment: Is it a "bottoming" or a "downward correction"?

• Short-term support confirmation: ETH spiked back up near $2,962, indicating that there is indeed strong buying pressure from long positions and short position liquidations in that range.
• Indicator repair demand: The 15-minute/1-hour KDJ is in an oversold position at a low level. Technically, a pullback is needed to absorb the divergence rate from the sudden drop in the early morning.
• Trend determination: rebound rather than reversal. Overall, the 4-hour and daily levels are still bearish. Therefore, the next strategy is: to take back short positions at high levels > to bet on short longs at support levels.
Shorting again at a high position (main strategy, in line with the medium-term trend)
The next ideal secondary short point will move slightly downwards:
• First resistance zone: $3,010 - $3,025 (1 hour Bollinger middle band).
• Second resistance area: $3,040 - $3,055 (near the starting point of the fall in the early morning).
• If the price retraces to around $3,025 and an upper shadow appears, you can re-enter a short position (the position can be set to 1/2 of the previous one).
• Stop-loss: Set at $3,075 (must stop-loss before breaking the previous high).
• Take profit: Looking back at the liquidations concentration zone for long positions around $2,950.
3. Risk/Opportunity Weight Before Christmas
• 24-hour risk: If it falls below $2,950, it will trigger the liquidation of the $850 million long positions we calculated before. At that time, the market will show a vertical decline, directly targeting $2,880.
• Christmas Market: Historically, there is often a behavior of "baiting shorts" followed by a rally on Christmas Eve (23-24).
Core Observation: Looking for the "Golden Pit"
Liquidity hunting (high win rate pin bar entry)
• Ultimate entry point: $2,880 - $2,915
• Logic: * Dense Liquidation Zone: The $2,950 we mentioned earlier is just the first line of defense. The real bullish last line of defense and dense liquidation zone is around $2,880 - $2,900.
• Daily level support: Referring to the daily K line, the lower Bollinger Band is currently extending upwards, forming strong support around $2,880.
• Operation suggestion: Do not place a direct order; instead, wait for the price to rapidly increase in volume and break below $2,950. When it touches around $2,900 and quickly decreases in volume, or even shows a long lower shadow in 15 minutes, enter the market at market price.
• Stop Loss: $2,840 (if it falls below the previous low, the Christmas rally will basically be declared over).
• Target level: Looking back at $3,050.
Confirm reversal (right-side safe long entry)
• Confirm entry position: $3,035 - $3,045 (after stabilizing)
• Logic: * Breakthrough Resistance: The starting point of this decline is at $3,060. If the price can recover to $3,030 and stabilize at the 1-hour level, it indicates that the breakdown is a complete "Bear Trap."
• Christmas market starts: Staying firm here usually signifies the official start of the Christmas market, targeting $3,300.
• Stop loss: $2,990.
• Target price: $3,200 - $3,350.
$ETH #Spot gold hits a new high again