Market (Dec 23, 2025)

BTC: ~$87.9k (range today ~87.9k–90.4k).
ETH: ~$2,980 (range today ~2,967–3,065).

Sentiment: “Extreme Fear” ~24 (very risk-off / oversold-ish vibe.

Flows: Spot BTC ETFs recently printed a strong inflow day (~$457M) while ETH ETF flows have been pressured (recent weekly outflows reported) → that usually supports BTC relative strength and keeps many alts “choppy.” �

What the sentiment is saying right now

Extreme fear + BTC still holding high (upper-$80k) usually means: Bounces can be sharp, but rallies often get sold until momentum/flows flip more consistently. �

Market is acting BTC-led (ETF bid + “flight to quality”), while ETH/alt beta is more selective. �

Technical read (probable levels & scenarios)

Bitcoin (BTC)

Trend/structure: Consolidation after a large prior move; price is “range-bound” around the big psychological $90k area. �

Key levels (practical map)

Support zone: ~$85k–$88k (recent stabilization zone; if lost, risk of a deeper flush).

Pivot / magnet: ~$90k (rejection/acceptance here tends to define the next swing).

Upside trigger: clean acceptance above ~$90k–$91k with improving ETF/derivatives tone → opens room for a run toward prior supply zones.

Setup bias: In extreme fear, I’d treat longs as “support-to-pivot trades” (buy support, take profits into $90k-ish) unless/until we see a decisive breakout with volume + improving sentiment. �

Ethereum (ETH)

ETH is still trading like higher beta: it moves, but flows matter more.

Support: ~$2.95k–$3.0k region (today’s lows are near here).

Upside: ~$3.1k–$3.3k becomes more likely if ETF flow
pressure eases and BTC holds firm. (Recent ETH ETF flow headlines show how sensitive ETH has been.) �

Macro catalysts to watch (2025 → end-2026)

These are the big “regime levers” that can shift the whole crypto complex:

Fed policy & liquidity: The Fed has already started cutting and the target range is around 3.50%–3.75% as of the Dec 10, 2025 decision; further easing (or a pause) changes risk appetite. �

ETF flow trend: Persistent net inflows tend to underpin BTC; if ETH ETFs stabilize and return to sustained inflows, ETH beta usually improves. �

Risk-on / risk-off rotation: If equities wobble or recession risk rises, crypto can stay choppy even with “good narratives.” If liquidity expands, crypto typically benefits disproportionately.

Price outlook in USD (today → end of Dec 2026)

These are scenario ranges (not certainties). I’m weighting them by current “fear” sentiment + BTC-led flows.

BTC (end-Dec 2026)

Bear case: $55k–$75k (macro shock / liquidity tightens again / ETF flows sour)

Base case: $95k–$140k (gradual easing + ETF bid continues, but cycles stay choppy)

Bull case: $160k–$240k (broad liquidity expansion + sustained ETF inflows + risk-on regime)

ETH (end-Dec 2026)

Bear case: $1.6k–$2.4k

Base case: $3.5k–$6.5k

Bull case: $7.5k–$12k (requires sustained inflows + strong onchain/activity + risk-on)

Quick “path” expectation (how it often plays out from extreme fear)

Q1–Q2 2026: volatile range trading; sentiment swings; BTC dominance typically stays firm.

H2 2026: if rate cuts/liquidity are supportive and ETF flows persist, odds rise for a more durable trend move.

#CryptoMarketMildlyRebounds