#美联储降息 The Fed's interest rate cuts have been fully reflected in the prices, which is the core judgment given by JPMorgan. The current issue is not about the rate cuts themselves, but about how the market will move next.

From on-chain data, the fund trends before the end of the year are very valuable for reference. On one hand, institutional investors are locking in profits, with options positions accumulated by the end of December exceeding 50%. The biggest pain point for BTC is the $100,000 round number, indicating a clear defensive posture in the market. On the other hand, the approach of Christmas and year-end settlements means liquidity will tighten further, and historically, this period has been the least vibrant phase for the crypto market.

The dovish Fed's resumption of $40 billion in short-term Treasury purchases has indeed released a liquidity signal, but it's still too early to talk about a bull market restart. The implied volatility in the options market has continued to decline this month, and the market's expectations for subsequent volatility are gradually cooling. Overall, a slow decline should be the most likely mid-term trend, unless a sudden positive development breaks the current sluggish pattern. Recently, paying attention to whale outflows and the flow of large contracts will be more helpful.