Meta Platforms: Why the 2026 Comeback Narrative Deserves More Attention

The Market’s Concerns Are Overblown

Investors currently have a love-hate relationship with Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META). Despite a solid 11% year-to-date gain, the stock remains roughly 20% below its all-time peak, underperforming the S&P 500, which has surged 17% so far this year. The culprit behind the market’s hesitation isn’t disappointing fundamentals—it’s the company’s aggressive capital spending roadmap that has spooked shareholders.

Management signaled that 2026 capex will grow “notably larger” than 2025’s projected $66 billion to $72 billion range. Coming off 2024’s $39.2 billion investment, Meta could exceed $100 billion in capital expenditures next year. For a mature company its size, this spending trajectory raises legitimate concerns about near-term profitability and cash flow strain.

The Performance Tells a Different Story

Yet the company’s operational results paint a markedly different picture. In Q3 (ended Sept. 30), Meta delivered $51.2 billion in revenue—a 26% year-over-year increase that exceeded the high end of management guidance at $50.5 billion. For a company of this scale and maturity, sustaining growth above 25% is no small feat.

Artificial intelligence remains the primary growth engine. CEO Mark Zuckerberg highlighted how AI-powered recommendation algorithms have boosted user engagement metrics: Facebook users spent approximately 5% more time on the platform, while Threads usage jumped 10%. Instagram showed the most dramatic improvement, with time-on-platform surging over 30% year-over-year. This engagement directly translates to more ad impressions and higher revenue per user. The platform is clearly holding ground against TikTok despite previous market concerns about competition.

Why the Spending Makes Strategic Sense

The real question investors should ask: Is Meta’s capex surge a sign of desperation or foresight?

Consider this context: Nvidia, the bellwether for AI infrastructure demand, projects global data center capex will reach $3 trillion to $4 trillion annually by 2030—roughly five to seven times the current $600 billion annual spend. Meeting that trajectory requires nearly every AI hyperscaler to dedicate the vast majority of its operating cash flow to infrastructure buildout.

Meta is simply the first major tech player to reach this inflection point publicly. By 2026, competitors including Microsoft, Google, and Amazon will likely face similar pressure. When that happens, Meta’s aggressive spending won’t look like an outlier—it will look prescient.

The Valuation Equation

At 21.5 times forward 2026 earnings, Meta’s valuation remains reasonable relative to both historical levels and growth profile. The stock isn’t being marked as a growth-at-any-price play; it’s being priced with skepticism baked in regarding the capex cycle.

If Meta sustains its current revenue growth trajectory while the market normalizes its capex concerns in 2026, a meaningful rerating becomes likely. The “comeback” narrative isn’t about reaching new all-time highs—it’s about the market recognizing that infrastructure investment today enables competitive moats tomorrow.

The Bottom Line

Meta Platforms is positioned for a 2026 comeback if two conditions hold: continued double-digit revenue growth (which recent results suggest is achievable) and broader market acceptance that AI infrastructure spending is not a bug but a feature of the next five years. When other tech giants follow Meta down the capex path, today’s skepticism may transform into tomorrow’s regret for investors who sat on the sidelines.