Recently saw some on-chain data and suddenly realized the harsh truth in the market.

A giant whale accumulated 1.68 million UNI from a certain exchange between December 15 and 23, at an average price of $5.2. Wait, this timing is crucial—the governance proposal for UNI was submitted on the 18th and passed on the 22nd. When the coin price surged to $6.5, this address perfectly sold at the peak. Calculating it out, he made an unrealized profit of nearly $1.37 million.

And what about retail investors? The proposal has passed, and what was originally expected to be good news has instead become a signal for a sell-off. This is the truth of the market: by the time the news reaches your ears, it is always several beats too late.

**The signals from the technical aspect are also very clear**

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the situation is not optimistic. The price is struggling around 5.86, the MACD has already crossed down, and the green bars are turning red. More importantly, the trading volume continues to shrink, indicating that the upward momentum is clearly lacking.

From the perspective of positional relationships: the upper level of 6.55 is the first resistance, and 7 is a ceiling that is difficult to break through; the lower level of 5.86 is a defensive line that must be maintained, and further down at 5.3 is strong support. Currently, the selling pressure is clearly greater than buying pressure, and the rebound seems weak—this is a typical sign of a shift to bearish after the good news is realized.

Once the key level is broken with increased volume, a subsequent accelerated decline may start immediately.

**Towards Prediction**

Overall, UNI is likely to break downward tonight. Whales have already taken profits and are likely to quietly sell off in batches next. The main players' strategy is clear: they use the story of proposals to attract retail investors to take over, while they are gradually exiting behind the scenes.

There are two possible trends for the market: one is a small rebound to the 6.1-6.3 range to lure in buyers, and then quickly breaking down below 5.86; the other is a direct increase in volume to break below 5.86, triggering panic selling.

In any case, defending 5.86 is particularly important.