#比特币持有 The predicament of MSTR is worth a deeper analysis. From the data, the BTC-MSTR correlation of 0.97 means that the leverage effect is fully amplified, with Bitcoin falling 31% directly resulting in MSTR falling 50%, which essentially reflects a vulnerability issue in the capital structure.

More critically, mNAV has fallen from its peak to 1.15, with the premium space almost completely compressed. When mNAV approaches 1, the dilution effect of continuing to issue shares will outweigh the financing value, which directly led to a significant decline in the number of Bitcoins purchased in November—only 130 coins, which is almost negligible for institutions holding 650,000.

The cash reserves of $1.44 billion seem to be a defensive measure, but the core issue remains unresolved: the annual preferred stock dividend burden amounts to $750-800 million, while the software business revenue is far from sufficient to cover it. This means that in the future, either leverage will need to be reduced to accept long-term discounted trading, or external macroeconomic stimulus will be relied upon to restart the flywheel, or an acceleration in expanding preferred stock products will be needed to attract retail investors — but the last path actually accumulates reflexive risks, which may ultimately force a sell-off of Bitcoin.

When spot ETFs have become standard, the logic of bearing these debts and dilution risks to hold BTC no longer holds up. Holders need to reassess the evolution direction of this structural dilemma.