#美联储政策 The Fed's decision tonight will be a turning point. A rate cut is almost certain, but the key lies in how Powell describes the path for 2026 - from the current signals, a hawkish tone has already been established, and many regional Fed chairs are hitting the brakes.

I am focusing on two pieces of data: first, whether the new dot plot will show a downgrade in interest rate cut expectations, and second, the wording regarding the "possibility of future rate cuts" in the policy statement. If the phrasing shifts from "moderate rate cuts" to "depending on the situation," it would mean that the market's expectations for rate cuts need to be repriced.

From an on-chain perspective, the recent surge of BTC and SOL is primarily driven by the release of sentiment—rising job vacancy data + Hassert's positive comments stimulating risk appetite. However, the sustainability of this rebound depends on the policy tone after 3 AM. If the Fed really turns hawkish, the expectation of tightening liquidity will re-press risk asset valuations, and it is necessary to closely monitor the inflow and outflow of large funds.

The $443 million ENA withdrawal from Ethena is worth noting, as large movements often indicate that institutions are adjusting their positions. The current question is: is this preparation for tightening policy, or just routine liquidity management? On-chain data from the 24 hours following the meeting will provide the answer.