The judgment of bull runs and Bear Markets is not very divergent in the current market; more and more people are starting to believe that we have entered a Bear Market. However, based on the long-term holder sentiment and fear indicators that I prefer, we are still in the green zone (belief – doubt), and the "doubt" itself corresponds perfectly to the current mainstream attitude in the market.

From a more granular perspective, there has indeed been a brief entry into the yellow zone (optimistic-anxious) recently. If prices continue to decline, it can be expected that sentiment will further weaken. However, at least from the behavior of long-term holders, they have not shown the typical systemic withdrawal or panic selling seen in a Bear Market.

At the same time, we also see that the supply of exchange $BTC is still declining, indicating that the chips willing to be sold are decreasing, and more BTC is being transferred to long-term holding status, with high-net-worth funds continuing to accumulate. Many friends may ask, since buying behavior continues to exist, why is the price still falling? The reason is that the current buying is more passive and allocation-based; it changes the supply structure rather than the short-term price. $BTC #2026行情预测

The decline in exchange reserves itself is a long-term and structural signal, indicating that future supply shocks are diminishing. However, in the short term, prices are still primarily dominated by the macro environment, leveraged funds, liquidity, and sentiment. In simpler terms, the decrease in exchange inventory means that, on one hand, the willingness to sell has decreased, and on the other hand, more and more investors are choosing to exit short-term speculation. But this does not mean that the impact of intraday trading on prices is weakening.

From the turnover rate data, there is still a large amount of intraday trading activity in the market, with prices mainly determined by this part of short-term capital through repeated speculation, while long-term capital has gradually withdrawn from pricing power. This is also an important reason why market liquidity seems to exist at the current stage, but actual effective liquidity continues to decline.