Recently, I have been watching the four-hour chart of BCH, and there is a phenomenon worth pondering— the yellow and white lines are repeatedly testing near the zero axis. Is this market going to directly hit 615, or will it first pull back to 540 for a whipsaw? After looking at this data comparison, it may help you avoid some risks.

**Imbalance Warning for Contracts and Spot Trading**

BCH has risen 34%, which looks impressive on the surface, but digging deeper into the data reveals some anomalies. The contract trading volume of 739 million contrasts sharply with the spot trading volume of 85 million, with a discrepancy of over 8 times. In other words, for every actual buyer of the coin in the market, there are 8 people speculating on the coin's ups and downs through contracts. This is not a simple investment behavior; it has shifted the trading battlefield from the spot market to the derivatives gambling table.

**Position Pressure and Price Tug-of-War**

With a market value of 11.6 billion, BCH carries a contract position of 714 million. Both long and short positions are engaged in a bloody battle at this level of holdings, where every price fluctuation means someone is being liquidated. Every bit of increase you see is essentially built on the losses of those who were forcibly liquidated.

Big capital and smart money are using high-leverage tools to precisely target retail investors' emotions—creating panic when they are greedy and instilling hope when they are panicking. The pattern of a quiet spot market and a hot futures market precisely indicates that the whales have no intention of holding long-term; their goal is to harvest liquidity through price fluctuations.

**The Truth of the Market**

This does not resemble a natural bull market; rather, it seems more like a market that has been artificially trained. While retail investors are still dreaming of getting rich by watching the candlestick charts, large institutions have already used massive contract positions to turn market participants' psychological reactions into predictable and exploitable tools. The script for the next round of significant rises or falls has likely been written long ago.

From the current position and trading structure, this imbalance is difficult to maintain in the long term, and the market will ultimately seek to rebalance. It remains to be seen which direction it will break through, as we need to continue observing the flow of funds and signals from the technical side.