#市场观察 The macro liquidity report has come out, and the data is indeed not optimistic. TGA remains at a high level of $935 billion and continues to increase, bank reserves are trending downward, and DXY stands firm at 100.55 establishing a strong dollar—these are all sending the same signal: the market is in a clear state of tightening liquidity.

Score by item: TGA and reserves both -1, DXY -1, credit ratio HYG/LQD approximately 0.721 also at -1. Overall score -4, liquidity signal continues to show red.

The key point is that the RRP has basically been reduced to zero, which means that the market has lost its buffer to cope with liquidity shocks. Coupled with the pressure from a strong dollar, risk assets are now in an extremely unfriendly valuation environment. As long as the Treasury's TGA does not start large-scale spending, the market's "water shortage" situation is unlikely to improve.

For those varieties that rely on high liquidity support, caution is necessary at this stage. The market's resistance to negative news will significantly weaken under such tense circumstances, and any slight disturbance may amplify volatility. Continue to observe the trends of TGA and changes in reserve levels, as these two are core indicators for assessing liquidity turning points.