Core Situation Assessment: Is it a "Bottoming" or a "downward correction"?

• Short-term support confirmation: ETH rebounded near $2,962, indicating that there is indeed strong buying pressure from long positions and short position liquidations in that range.
• Indicator repair demand: The 15-minute/1-hour KDJ is in an oversold position at a low level. Technically, a pullback is needed to digest the divergence rate of the sharp drop in the early morning.
• Trend determination: rebound rather than reversal. Overall, the 4-hour and daily levels remain bearish. Therefore, the next strategy is: re-enter short positions at high levels > support level to speculate on short-term longs.
Shorting again at a high position (main strategy, in line with the medium-term trend)
The ideal secondary short point will slightly shift downward:
• First resistance area: $3,010 - $3,025 (1-hour Bollinger midline).
• Second Resistance Zone: $3,040 - $3,055 (near the point where it fell in the early morning).
• If the price pulls back to around $3,025 and an upper shadow appears, you can re-enter a short position (the position can be set to 1/2 of the previous one).
• Stop loss: Set at $3,075 (must stop loss before breaking the previous high).
• Take profit: Looking back at the $2,950 area, which is a dense liquidation zone for long positions.
3. Risk/Opportunity Weight Before Christmas
• 24-hour risk: If it falls below $2,950, it will trigger the $850 million long liquidation we calculated earlier. At that time, the market will show a vertical downward correction, directly aiming for $2,880.
• Christmas Market: Historically, on Christmas Eve (23-24), there is often behavior of "baiting shorts" before a rally.
Core Observation: Looking for the "Golden Pit"
Liquidity hunting (high win rate pin bar entry)
• Extreme entry point: $2,880 - $2,915
• Logic: * Dense liquidation zone: The $2,950 we mentioned before is just the first line of defense. The real bullish last line of defense and dense liquidation zone is around $2,880 - $2,900.
• Daily level support: Referring to the daily K-line, the lower Bollinger Band is currently extending upwards, forming strong support around $2,880.
• Operation suggestion: Do not place orders directly, but wait for the price to rapidly spike and fall below $2,950, and when it touches around $2,900 with a quick decrease in volume, or even shows a long lower shadow in 15 minutes, enter the market at market price.
• Stop-loss: $2,840 (if it falls below the previous low, the Christmas market is basically declared over).
• Target level: Looking back at $3,050.
Confirm reversal (right-side safety long position)
• Confirm entry point: $3,035 - $3,045 (after stabilizing)
• Logic: * Breakthrough Resistance: The starting point of this downward movement is at $3,060. If the price can recover to $3,030 and stabilize at the 1-hour level, it indicates that the breakdown is a complete "Bear Trap."
• Christmas rally begins: Stabilizing here usually signifies the official start of the Christmas rally, with a target aimed directly at $3,300.
• Stop loss: $2,990.
• Target price: $3,200 - $3,350.
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