QCP: Christmas week liquidity contraction, crypto market maintains range fluctuations

On December 23, QCP released its daily market observation stating that as the Christmas holiday approaches, liquidity in the crypto market has significantly weakened. Despite gold prices reaching a historic high, Bitcoin remains in a range-bound fluctuation. Data shows that the open interest of BTC perpetual futures on major exchanges decreased by about $3 billion overnight, while the open interest of ETH perpetual futures fell by about $2 billion, indicating that the market is actively deleveraging rather than increasing positions. The contraction in liquidity raises the risk of bi-directional squeezes during the holiday period. Historically, Bitcoin tends to experience price fluctuations of 5%-7% during the Christmas week, largely related to the concentration of year-end options expiration. This Friday will see a large-scale expiration of about 300,000 BTC options contracts (approximately $23.7 billion) and 446,000 IBIT options, with over 50% of the open contracts on CEX expiring on Boxing Day, primarily at execution prices of $100,000 and $85,000, with the maximum pain point around $95,000. Recent data indicates a decrease in the open interest of $85,000 put options, while the holdings of $100,000 call options remain relatively stable, reflecting the market's limited optimistic expectations for the “Christmas rally.” At the same time, the risk reversal indicator shows that market sentiment has eased compared to the last 30 days, but overall remains slightly bearish. Analysis suggests that in addition to options fund flows, year-end tax stop loss operations may also amplify short-term fluctuations in a low liquidity environment. However, based on historical experience, holiday trends often revert to the mean after liquidity returns in January. In the absence of clear directional breakthroughs, the crypto market may continue to maintain a fluctuation pattern in the short term.