Recently, I saw some market observers discussing market trends, and they put forward an interesting viewpoint: Even if Bitcoin falls 20% in the fourth quarter, it does not count as a Bear Market; only a drop of 40% or more can truly be determined as the arrival of a Bear Market.

At first glance, it does make some sense, but upon closer inspection, there are issues. According to this logic, wouldn't we have to wait for Bitcoin to be halved to acknowledge that the situation has changed? Would we have to wait for a 60% fall to confirm that the bear market has fully unfolded? By that time, most people might have already cut their losses at the bottom.

Interestingly, this kind of rhetoric is not only common on social platforms but can also be heard in trading floors. It seems that everyone is using some sort of psychological defense mechanism—only willing to acknowledge the existence of risk when extreme data appears. But the market won't wait for you to figure it out.

Everyone has the right to choose their own criteria for judgment, but the premise is to be responsible for one's own choices. If it falls, it falls; if it needs to be held, then hold it. The most fearful thing is to bet yesterday's definition on tomorrow's market.