#宏观经济影响 The Fed's interest rate cut expectations continue to decline, and this signal is worth following. The latest consensus points to a cumulative rate cut of less than 75 basis points by the end of 2026, while Morgan Stanley and CIBC's judgment is more hawkish—suggesting that the rate cut may be completed in one go, followed by a pause in rate hikes.

The logic behind this is very clear: economic growth momentum is stronger than expected, inflation remains sticky, and the US Treasury yield approaching 4% reflects the market's pricing of persistently high interest rates. What does limited policy space mean? The easing cycle of the liquidity environment may be much shorter than expected.

The meaning of on-chain funds is not to overbet on the liquidity dividend brought by interest rate cuts. Recently, two signals need to be followed: first, whether whales are reducing their positions at high levels; second, whether large capital flows are shifting towards stable assets. If macro expectations shift from "multiple rate cuts" to "possibly one rate cut," the attractiveness of risk assets will be repriced. The key now is to identify when the market truly reacts to this.