Views on the long-term and short-term market outlook.

$BTC From the weekly perspective, BTC has indeed been tested several times above 80000, indicating that there are buyers below. However, this is definitely not the bottom of this bear market. Structurally, it is still highly probable that it will drop back below 80600 to complete the process starting with 7. In this bull market, BTC has risen from 15000 all the way to 126000, and this large cycle has already come to a full stop. What we see now is just a technical rebound within the declining cycle.
The daily BTC angle will be clearer. In the short term, if 84400 does not break, it can be viewed as the starting line for a rebound, but 94000 is the first hard hurdle, and whether it can pass completely depends on the capital attitude. The current weekly pattern is actually very similar to the sideways market at the beginning of 2022; the consecutive lower shadows indicate that there are still buyers willing to step in, but the MACD showing a golden cross at a low position only indicates that the selling pressure has eased, which does not mean a trend reversal. This scenario has already played out in history: a rebound to 0.618, and then a direct collapse.
Following this trend, this wave of fluctuations will likely drag on until mid to late January next year, with the upper limit of the rebound being around 98000.
The signs of short-term manipulation are too obvious, with the core still being the 3000 level. If it can hold, there will still be a chance to test 3160; once it fails, the area below 2940 will be a vacuum zone, and there is hardly any decent support before 2775. Even if December closes positively, it does not signify strength; it more resembles paving the way for further declines in January. After four consecutive months of decline, it indeed provides some imaginative space for a short-term rebound, but it remains just a rebound, not a reversal.