# Spot gold hits new highs

Recently, the hottest topic in the financial market is undoubtedly the record high prices of spot gold and silver. The price of spot gold has surged to 4500 USD, while the price of silver has even risen to the point where the Shanghai Futures Exchange has begun to limit long positions. Many investors are reaping significant profits, which makes us in the crypto space envious. So, what impact will the new high of spot gold have on Bitcoin? Why are gold prices and Bitcoin prices no longer positively correlated? Let Little Fortune explain it all for you:

The interaction between gold and Bitcoin is essentially a value dialogue between traditional safe-haven assets and value storage tools in the digital age. Its core logic can be broken down into three dimensions: First, the "leading-following" paradigm in historical cycles.
The price of gold often initiates an upward cycle ahead of Bitcoin, creating a temporal characteristic of "gold paving the way, Bitcoin following suit." This pattern was typically confirmed in 2025—gold reached a temporary peak in April and entered a consolidation phase, breaking through previous highs in August to initiate a new round of upward momentum, while Bitcoin's significant rise lagged by about 1-2 months. This lag is derived from the transmission chain of investment logic: Gold, as a mature safe-haven asset dominated by institutions, is often viewed as a signal of rising macro risk when its price breaks through, thereby attracting elastic cryptocurrency funds into the market. Historical data shows that Bitcoin usually follows up with an increase within 100-150 days after gold starts to rise, forming a periodic linkage rhythm.
2. The "Divergence-Convergence" Paradox in Risk Aversion Attributes
In theory, gold and Bitcoin share the "anti-inflation" narrative, but their actual performance shows a complex divergence:
✅Short-term linkage: When local geopolitical conflicts or liquidity crises erupt, both often attract safe-haven buying simultaneously. For example, during the significant drop in U.S. stocks in Q1 2025, both gold and Bitcoin recorded inflows, confirming the "risk tension - safe-haven buying" model.
✅ Long-term differentiation: The safe-haven status of gold stems from a millennia-long monetary history, while Bitcoin is still in the "transition from risk asset to safe-haven asset" stage. Data from 2025 shows that gold prices rose by 16% for the entire year, while Bitcoin corrected by 6%, reflecting that institutional funds tend to prefer the certainty of gold under extreme risk.
✅Volatility Difference: The annualized volatility of Bitcoin is about 70%, far exceeding that of gold at 15%, leading to a more pronounced increase for the former under the same macro momentum. This characteristic makes it more resilient in inflation hedging scenarios, but also increases the likelihood of short-term price divergence from gold trends.
3. The Impact of Capital Rotation and Market Structure
The relationship between the two is deeply shaped by the mechanism of capital flow.
✅Institutional behavior: The massive net inflow into gold ETFs may temporarily withdraw funds from the cryptocurrency market, creating a "gold strong, coin weak" situation. Conversely, after the approval of Bitcoin ETFs, the rotation of institutional funds between the two has significantly enhanced their correlation. For example, around the Bitcoin halving cycle in October 2025, institutional buying behavior was evident, driving prices to rise independently.
✅Investor Structure: High-net-worth individuals prefer the historical recognition of gold, while cryptocurrency speculators chase the high returns of Bitcoin, leading to a dynamic shift in their shares in the risk-hedging competition. However, as Bitcoin is gradually incorporated into mainstream asset allocation (such as the approval of spot ETFs), its interaction with gold is increasingly driven by macro narratives.
✅Policy Catalysis: When the Federal Reserve shifts its monetary policy to a loose cycle, gold and Bitcoin often benefit simultaneously from an influx of liquidity; conversely, rising expectations of interest rate hikes may suppress the prices of both. After the Federal Reserve's first rate cut in September 2025, the market presents a "lackluster" attitude, reflecting that asset prices have already digested policy expectations in advance.
IV. Future Outlook: From Linkage to Independent Value Reconstruction
The current correlation coefficient between gold and Bitcoin fluctuates between 0.1 (long-term) and 0.5-0.9 (short-term extreme events), indicating that their movements are mostly independent most of the time, but tend to converge briefly during crises. As the Bitcoin halving cycle progresses (such as in October 2025), its independent market performance may strengthen:
✅Inflation Hedge: If global monetary easing continues, Bitcoin may amplify its gains due to its "digital gold" properties, but caution is needed regarding the volatility risks brought by sudden changes in regulatory policies.
✅Hedging Competition: The stability of gold complements the high elasticity of Bitcoin, allowing investors to balance risk and return through portfolio allocation. Institutions like Bridgewater Associates still prefer the hedging reliability of gold, but the allocation weight of Bitcoin is quietly increasing.
✅ Periodic Law: The consolidation period after gold breaks a new high may provide a time window for Bitcoin to gather momentum. Historical statistics indicate that Bitcoin may welcome a new wave of market activity within 100-150 days after the rise of gold.

Conclusion: The relationship between gold and Bitcoin is essentially a value dialogue between traditional financial order and the digital revolution. When gold reaches new highs, Bitcoin's trend is not merely a simple follow-up, but rather seeks its own digital gold era amidst the intertwining of historical cycles, capital rotation, and market structure. For investors, understanding the linkage logic and differentiation characteristics of the two is key to seizing market opportunities in 2026.