The recent market trend has been quite interesting; let's break down the short-term and medium-term rhythms.

Let’s first talk about the situation of BTC. Looking at the weekly chart, BTC has been repeatedly tested above 80000, which indicates that there is indeed buying power lurking below. However, this is definitely not the bottom of this bear market. From a structural perspective, it is very likely to drop further, with the target being to fall below 80600, ultimately reaching the 70s to complete the homework of this cycle. Looking back, this bull market rose from 15000 to 126000, and that big cycle has already come to an end. What we see now as a rebound? To put it bluntly, it is just a technical breather during the downtrend.

Switching to a daily perspective allows for a clearer understanding. In the short term, if the line at 84400 does not break, it can be considered a running line for a rebound. However, 94000 is the real tough nut to crack; whether it can be surpassed entirely depends on the attitude of the funds. The current weekly pattern resembles the sideways movement at the beginning of 2022—a series of lower shadows indicates there are still buyers, but the low-level golden cross in MACD only suggests that selling pressure has eased, not that a trend reversal has occurred. Historically, this scenario has played out before: a rebound hitting 0.618 can lead to a direct plunge. Following this pace downwards, this wave of fluctuations may drag on until mid to late January next year, with the estimated rebound limit around 98000.

ETH is even more interesting. It's clear that someone is manipulating it in the short term. The core resistance is still at the 3000 mark. If it stabilizes, there is a chance to push towards 3160. Once it falls below, the next area is the vacuum zone below 2940, and there is basically no effective support before 2775. Even if December closes with a bullish candle, it cannot be considered strong; rather, it looks more like paving the way for a downward continuation in January. The four-month decline has indeed provided some room for a short-term rebound, but the issue is - this is always a rebound, not a reversal.