Commodity ETF Performance Breakdown: Which 2024 Winners Can Sustain Momentum into 2025?

2024 painted a complex picture across global commodity markets, with stark winners and notable underperformers. While some asset classes delivered exceptional returns driven by supply constraints and geopolitical factors, others struggled with oversupply pressures. Understanding which ETF exposures captured these gains—and why—matters for positioning in 2025.

Precious Metals Dominated: Gold and Silver Lead the Charge

Gold commanded center stage throughout 2024, posting its strongest year in roughly 15 years. Central bank accumulation, dovish policy pivots by major central banks, and heightened geopolitical risk created a perfect storm for the yellow metal. Silver rode this wave even higher, achieving its best performance since 2020. Beyond safe-haven demand, silver’s industrial applications—from solar manufacturing to electric vehicle components—provided additional tailwinds that gold couldn’t match.

Conversely, platinum and palladium ended the year in negative territory, reflecting softer industrial demand and shifting investor preferences.

The Franklin Responsibly Sourced Gold ETF (FGDL) captured this momentum with a 29.6% gain, managing $107.9 million in assets while charging just 15 basis points annually. For silver exposure, the abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF (SIVR) surged 28.2%, bolstered by $1.4 billion in assets and a slim 0.30% expense ratio. Meanwhile, the Invesco DB Precious Metals Fund (DBP) delivered 29% returns with its 8.6% gold allocation and heavier silver weighting, all for 76 basis points in annual fees.

Agricultural Boom: Coffee and Cocoa Steal the Show

The agricultural sector executed a remarkable bull run, with two commodities stealing headlines. Cocoa emerged as 2024’s top performer, rocketing 172% as supply crises in Ivory Coast and Ghana collided with dwindling global inventories. Coffee followed closely, surging nearly 70% on adverse weather patterns in Vietnam, Brazil, and other key producing regions.

The Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (DBA) capitalized on these tailwinds with a 33% return, holding 16.8% in cocoa and 13.1% in coffee. This diversified agriculture tracker accumulated $782.1 million and maintains a 92 basis point expense structure with daily trading volume around 342,000 shares.

Energy: A Tale of Divergence

The energy complex painted polarized outcomes. Natural gas soared 50% on robust global demand, geopolitical tensions, and expectations for expanded US LNG exports under incoming administration policies. Oil, by contrast, slipped 3% for the second consecutive year as production exceeded consumption.

The United States Oil Fund (USO) managed a respectable 15.3% gain despite headwinds, supported by $1 billion in assets and 3 million daily shares traded. Its 0.70% expense ratio remains competitive for broad-based oil exposure.

Industrial metals—copper and nickel—staged a compelling first-half rally on EV proliferation and AI-driven demand, only to fade as the year progressed, cementing their status as 2024’s weakest performers.

What’s Ahead: Positioning for 2025

Looking forward, incoming trade policies and currency dynamics will reshape the commodity landscape. A sustained dollar strength and continued flight-to-safety positioning could support precious metals, though ample energy supply appears positioned to keep oil pressured for a third consecutive year. Agricultural volatility may persist if weather remains unpredictable in critical growing regions.