# Real-time Market Analysis

The big data shows that BTC has fallen below $85,425, and the cumulative liquidation intensity of long positions on mainstream CEX will reach $1.653 billion. Conversely, if BTC breaks through $94,065, the cumulative liquidation intensity of short positions on mainstream CEX will reach $1.025 billion.

If ETH falls below $2,906, the cumulative long liquidation volume on major CEX will reach $1.166 billion. Conversely, if ETH breaks above $3,186, the cumulative short liquidation volume on major CEX will reach $727 million.

What is the market likely to do next?

🔍 Market Status and Settlement Pattern

The current market price is right in the middle of the key liquidation zone, which makes the next direction full of uncertainties.

From the perspective of liquidation intensity, a noteworthy phenomenon is that the potential liquidation intensity of long positions is significantly higher than that of short positions. This means that if the price breaks down below support, the resulting chain liquidation selling pressure (BTC: $1.653 billion, ETH: $1.166 billion) will be more intense than the short position liquidation buying pressure triggered during an upward breakout (BTC: $1.025 billion, ETH: $727 million). This in itself adds extra psychological and actual resistance to the market's upward movement.

📈 The core contradictions affecting short-term trends

The current market is caught in the tug of various forces, with the main contradiction concentrated on:

1. Strong Leverage Pressure vs. Weak Upward Momentum
In this environment, even with positive news, the market often prioritizes "risk clearance" rather than continuing to surge. Since the beginning of this year, the market has repeatedly verified that "leverage crowding" in high positions is one of the main reasons for the interruption of trends.
2. The Game of "Slow Variables" and "Fast Variables"
· Slow variables (long-term benefits): including institutions continuously buying through ETFs, the growth of stablecoin scale (annual on-chain stablecoin trading volume has reached 46 trillion USD), and the development of sectors such as RWA. These are the foundations supporting the market.
· Fast variables (short-term shocks): mainly macro risks, position crowding, and leverage liquidation. These factors often play a decisive role in the short term, interrupting trends driven by slow variables.
3. New Characteristics Under Institutional Leadership
In 2025, institutional funds have become the absolute dominant force in the market. This has brought about a dual impact:
· Positive aspect: It has provided a more stable long-term buying interest (for example, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw weekly inflows exceeding $3.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025).
· New Risks: Institutional funds are more sensitive to interest rates and other macroeconomic indicators, which increases the correlation between the crypto market and traditional financial markets, potentially amplifying volatility due to macro changes.

🔮 Market Outlook: High-level Fluctuations and Directional Breakthroughs

Overall, the market is likely to experience the following stages:

1. Short-term (next few weeks): The market is expected to continue to oscillate and chop within key liquidation price ranges. A large number of long and short orders will attract the price like a magnet, and any directional probing may trigger a large amount of liquidations, resulting in severe instantaneous volatility. Trading sentiment is likely to become cautious.
2. Mid-term (next few months): The market needs new catalysts to break the deadlock and choose a direction. Potential catalysts may include:
· Macroeconomic level: Such as the clear shift in U.S. interest rate policy.
· Regulatory Level: Implementation of major policies (such as the subsequent details of the "GENIUS Act").
· Financial aspect: The ETF has seen a continuous influx of unexpectedly large amounts of capital.
Considering the greater pressure of long position liquidation and the historical pattern of significant pullbacks after multiple rises within the year, the resistance to breaking upwards will be stronger. If there are no strong catalysts, the likelihood of the market failing to test the upper resistance and instead turning to test the support downwards, squeezing out leverage, is relatively higher.

In simple terms, the market is likely to "grind" next. The possibility of a direct, violent breakthrough is low; it is more likely to experience high volatility fluctuations in the current key price range, waiting for new clear signals from the macroeconomic or regulatory level. For traders, "low leverage" and "wide stop loss" are key to protecting themselves in this environment. #BTC行情分析