#数字资产市场洞察 **Traps Between Rise and Fall: Why 3100 is Difficult to Break Through**

Recently, ETH has been fluctuating around 3030, with a MACD golden cross on the 1-hour chart. Many people want to buy the dip based on this signal. But if you think about it calmly— is every golden cross before a big rise necessarily a bottom? Not necessarily.

My observation is: this wave of rebound is actually very hollow. The energy bars are shrinking, and the upward momentum mainly comes from emotions rather than real capital inflow. More critically, while the main players are pushing prices up, they have already started to pull out funds, while retail investors are following the trend and chasing the highs—this is a typical tactic.

**The Fed's hawkish pressure, high interest rates have become a long-term shackles**

FOMC voting member Harker recently made hawkish comments, stating, "Interest rates will remain high, and inflation is still a stubborn issue." This poses a long-term suppressive force for high-risk assets like ETH. Given this macro backdrop, can we expect a significant rise in the short term? It's difficult. Market volatility will continue, but the upward space has already been constrained.

**The technical analysis is saying the opposite**

This is the interesting part - looking bullish on the 1-hour chart (golden cross appears), but the daily and weekly charts are releasing sell signals. The divergence is obvious, indicating that the short-term rebound is inconsistent with the mid-term trend. At the 3100 level, there has always been pressure, and without significant positive news, it is difficult to break through effectively.

**What about looking down?**

ETH is struggling to stay above 3050, and the expectation is that it will rebound to the range of 3080-3100 before losing momentum and falling back. If it breaks below the support at 3000, the next focus should be around 2930.

**Ideas for Practical Operation**

—— Do not chase high prices. Above 3050 is a high-risk zone; it's better to miss a wave of rise than to get trapped.

—— Short on highs. Gradually build a short position in the 3080-3100 range, with a stop loss set at 3120, and initially target 3000. If it continues to break down, then look at 2930.

—— If you want to make a medium to long-term layout, you can patiently wait to enter near the 2930 position, and remember to set a stop loss.

**Last words**

The market is always fluctuating, and short-term rises and falls do not change rational analysis. High interest rate environment + technical divergence = risk signal. At this time, it is even more important to control oneself and not let emotions dominate decision-making.