#Polymarket预测市场 The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December on Polymarket reached 93%, which basically locked in this week's policy direction. Interestingly, subsequent expectations showed a significant divergence— the probability of no rate cut in January surged to 68%, while the probability of a rate cut was only 27%.

This reflects the typical logic of the market: a rate cut in December is already a certainty, but expectations for the sustainability of the policy have significantly shifted towards a hawkish stance. From the perspective of on-chain predictive market funding games, the game between short-term policy stimulus and medium-term inflation pressure has already been brought to the forefront.

The focus is not on December itself, but rather on when this expectation gap will have a substantial impact on on-chain capital flows. The current probability reversal may indicate that institutions are positioning themselves in advance for a policy turning point in January.