#加密市场观察

The demand in the Bitcoin market has significantly slowed down since 2025, with multiple indicators worsening, suggesting that the market may have entered a new bear market cycle.

By December 2025, the Federal Reserve had cut interest rates three times in a row, pulling the policy rate back from restrictive levels, but the market's reaction appeared unusually calm.

Core data reveals a market shift

The following are the key changes in the current market:

· Demand-driven force exhaustion
The three main spot demands in the current bull market cycle—approval of the US spot ETF, the 2024 US presidential election, and corporate financial asset allocation—have basically been fully released. The growth of new demand is currently below long-term trend levels, which means that the key pillars supporting prices are disappearing.
· Institutional funds are shifting out
A clear signal is that the fund flows of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF reversed in the fourth quarter of 2025. During that quarter, the net holdings of the ETF decreased by approximately 24,000 BTC, which stands in stark contrast to the strong accumulation in the fourth quarter of 2024. This reflects a contraction rather than an expansion in demand from institutions and large holders.
· The derivatives market is extremely lukewarm.
The perpetual contract funding rate, which measures market leverage sentiment, has seen its 365-day moving average drop to the lowest level since December 2023. Historically, a sustained decline in the funding rate reflects a reduced willingness of the market to maintain long positions, a pattern that typically occurs at the beginning of a bear market rather than a bull market.

The next direction of the market will largely depend on the trends in macro monetary policy.

· Short-term pressure: Currently, market sentiment is in a state of "fear." For the upcoming January 2026 FOMC meeting, only 22.1% of investors expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which suppresses optimism in the short term.
· Long-term hopes: However, more analysis places hope on 2026. Bank of America predicts that the Federal Reserve may repeat "policy surrender" in 2026 due to economic pressure, being forced to initiate a rate-cutting cycle. As one of the assets most sensitive to global liquidity, Bitcoin is expected to benefit first. At the same time, the Federal Reserve's ending of quantitative tightening and the initiation of a new asset purchase program may also inject new liquidity into risk markets next year.

Most people are hopeful for a potential interest rate cut cycle in 2026, believing it may drive up the price of Bitcoin, but the current market sentiment is clearly leaning towards pessimism.

The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.5%-3.75% in December 2025, but based on the dot plot forecast, it plans to cut rates by only 25 basis points each year in 2026 and 2027. This relatively mild monetary policy path may not be able to immediately reverse the downturn in the crypto market.

Overall, the Bitcoin market is undergoing a clear cooling phase, with the wave of institutional demand driven by ETFs temporarily receding, and technical support being breached. Although historical patterns and expectations of future accommodative monetary policy provide a glimmer of hope for long-term holders, market sentiment has clearly shifted to a cautious stance in the short term. Investors should be prepared for potential ongoing volatility and downside risks. #参与创作者认证计划月领$10,000