Vitalik: Prediction markets are the "cure" for social media, providing more rational and responsible public opinion aggregation.

On December 21, Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin posted on Farcaster stating that prediction markets are a good remedy for dealing with emotional topics and crazy opinions, and he used two screenshots as examples: Elon Musk previously posted that a civil war in the UK is “inevitable,” while the prediction market Polymarket shows only a 3% probability for “Will there be a civil war in the UK in 2024?” (Vitalik believes 3% is still too high, as some bettors are betting to inflate the probability). Vitalik said that many users on social media exaggerate by claiming “something will definitely happen” to create panic or attract attention, but they are not responsible for it; prediction markets, on the other hand, involve real money bets and are more likely to reflect true probabilities, thus counteracting these “crazy opinions.” Vitalik then elaborated on his overall view of prediction markets: compared to social media (which creates panic without responsibility) and mainstream media (clickbait headlines), prediction markets have a stronger “truth-seeking” motivation. Telling the truth can earn real rewards, while lying carries strong economic penalties. After discovering exaggerated news, checking Polymarket shows very low probabilities, which can help calm people, and conversely, it can also prevent false hope. Prediction markets are the “cure” for social media, providing a more rational and responsible way to aggregate public opinion.