The Bank of Japan raised interest rates today as scheduled, and the market reaction was basically within expectations. Last night's sell-off in the US stock market had already largely priced in the rate hike.

In recent days, more voices in the trading circle are turning bullish, but there's a detail to be cautious about — Christmas is coming soon, and market liquidity will significantly decrease. During this time window, Bitcoin often doesn't see any substantial moves. There is a possibility of a technical rebound in US stocks tonight, and a slight increase over the weekend is also possible, but based on past experience, the real trigger usually appears around Christmas, with a considerable risk of a double bottom.

The rate hike by the Bank of Japan itself is not a big deal; the key is the attitude at the press conference — whether they will signal easing or hint at liquidity support.

In the short term, US stock futures remain the most sensitive leading indicator of Bitcoin's reaction. Traders looking to catch the rhythm must track several variables simultaneously: US stock futures trends, movements of tech giants, European market opening performance, chip stocks like NVIDIA, S&P 500 volatility, the VIX fear index, and whether AI concept stocks show unusual activity.

Many traders tend to overlook a detail: during US stock market closed hours, futures react faster than Bitcoin, and this time difference often determines the rhythm of entering and exiting the market.