#数字资产市场洞察 Ethereum short-term is gathering strength at a critical point, and this 1-hour chart is very particular. To put it simply: look for an upward breakout, but only confirm with real volume before chasing the high. The initial target is in the 3050-3100 range.

**How to interpret the technicals**

What’s the current situation with the Bollinger Bands? The price is steadily hugging above the middle band (2880), which is the lifeline for the short-term bulls. The upper band is at 3006, and this level nearly perfectly resonates with the psychological barrier at 3000, forming resistance. Currently around 2950, the market is consolidating—appearing somewhat volatile, but in reality, chips are consolidating.

What about MACD? This is the most interesting part. The fast and slow lines are above zero, and a golden cross is about to form, with green momentum bars beginning to appear. What does this mean? Bullish momentum is re-accumulating. Once the golden cross truly materializes and volume increases, the hourly upward momentum can be triggered.

Support levels are well in mind: the 2920-2930 zone is where recent lows and moving averages coincide, and must hold. As long as this level holds, the overall structure remains intact. Conversely, if 2980 is broken and stabilized above, the upward space opens up. The first target is the upper Bollinger Band at 3006; if that is also broken, the acceleration potential increases significantly.

**What story is on-chain telling?**

Exchange net inflows of ETH have been low—what does this mean? Selling pressure is limited. There are no signs of large-scale chip loosening in the market.

Whales (addresses holding over 10K ETH) have shown slight accumulation in the past 24 hours. This is crucial, indicating smart money is willing to buy at this price level.

The total staked ETH in ETH 2.0 remains at a historical high, with a high proportion of chips locked up. The supply in circulation remains tight, and this fundamental has not changed, providing confidence in long-term expectations.

**How macro factors align**

On the macro side, market expectations for interest rate cuts next year are still fermenting, and risk asset sentiment is gradually warming. This is favorable for growth assets like Ethereum.

Ethereum’s Layer 2 ecosystem TVL (Total Value Locked) has recently grown against the trend, with active layer applications providing solid fundamental support. If there are major protocol upgrades or new partnership announcements, they could trigger a rally.

**How to operate**

At the current price around 2950, my view is that this is the entry zone for bulls. Place stop-loss below 2910—that is, where the hourly middle band is broken with volume confirmation.

If it breaks through 2980, consider adding positions. Targets are staged: 3020 and 3080. If volume surges past 3006 directly, hold on and keep an eye on the previous high zones.

The key still depends on volume. Breakouts without volume are all fake.