#非农数据超预期

Will the Federal Reserve act early? The key is not the non-farm payrolls themselves, but the "risk of losing control."

Many people are concerned: Will the unemployment rate rising to 4.6% force the Fed to cut interest rates early? I believe the answer is: in the short term, there will be no "aggressive early easing," but the policy stance will clearly shift toward easing.

The Fed's real concern is not a cooling of employment, but "loss of control over cooling." Current data is still far from out-of-control levels; employment is still growing, and the unemployment rate remains within a historically manageable range. This means the Fed has no reason to urgently rescue the market.

But the key change is: they no longer need to use "hawkish language" to suppress the market. Previously maintaining high interest rates was to prevent inflation from rebounding; now, with employment and wages both slowing down, the need for continued high-pressure policies diminishes. In other words, the Fed can "wait patiently" rather than "continue to apply pressure."

Under this environment, the most likely scenario is not a sudden rate cut, but a clear signal to outline the future path of rate cuts. Expectations alone can already influence the market.

Conclusion: No rush, but the direction is already set.