1. Market Overview

Based on the past 14 days and the last 48 hours of candlestick data, ETH's current market price is 2821.38, derived from the latest hourly and daily closing prices. Data shows that ETH has recently experienced significant declines and fluctuations, with a high of 3447.44 within 14 days and a low of 2775.19, with recent lows approaching 2814.49. Volatility has narrowed over the past two days, but prices remain trapped in the low range of 2800–2900.
In terms of trading volume, the highest single-day volume in 14 days occurred when the price broke below 2800 (761680), indicating active turnover during the downtrend, reflecting some panic and main force repositioning. As of the latest hour, volume is 4467.38, indicating a phase of low activity, suggesting short-term trading enthusiasm is subdued.
Market sentiment, combined with news and analyst opinions, remains cautious. Recent news indicates decreased retail participation, active addresses hitting a yearly low, and a weak trading structure. Pressure from whale stop-loss positions and capital outflows persists. Additionally, after CPI data fell below expectations, there was a brief rebound, but it failed to break through the key 3000 USD resistance level, with mainstream sentiment remaining on the sidelines.

2. Technical Analysis
Combining 14-day and 48-hour candlestick data, ETH has formed a clear downward channel with repeated resistance to short-term rebounds. Strong support appears in the 2775–2814 range (based on daily low of 2775.19 and hourly low of 2814.49). If broken, it will test lower levels. Key resistance is concentrated at 2860, 2900, and the 3000–3030 zone (recent highs and areas of repeated rejection). Initial resistance is around 2841 (hourly high), with stronger resistance at 2930–2960, both being recent rebound highs after declines.
Daily candlestick data shows ETH repeatedly breaking previous lows, with new lows emerging constantly, indicating a clear bearish trend. Over the past 48 hours, prices have gradually fallen from a high of 2965.19, with rebounds failing, and moving averages continue to be arranged in a bearish configuration. Volume has increased during staged declines, while rebounds lack volume, indicating dominant selling pressure.

3. News and Policy Interpretation
No significant new policies have been announced recently. Policy risk indicators over the past 24 hours, week, and month are all "0," indicating a neutral regulatory environment without additional restrictions or favorable policies.
In terms of news, after CPI data fell below expectations, ETH briefly touched the 3000 mark, but capital pressure was evident. One report mentioned a $553 million outflow from spot ETH ETFs this week, closely related to multiple failures to hold above 3000 within 14 days.
Additionally, whale liquidations, active addresses hitting yearly lows, and passive liquidation of major long positions all directly reflect sharp short-term declines and increased intraday volume. This indicates that, in the absence of new inflows and policy catalysts, technical selling pressure has intensified.

4. Analyst Opinions
Analyst strategies closely align with actual market performance. For example: "ETH direction: Short build-up: 2900–2930 stop-loss: 2950 take-profit: 2870–2840–2810, flexible entry, no need to time precisely."
This clearly favors short positions at high levels with expectations of further downside, providing specific ranges and risk control points.
Another view states: "One-on-one guidance for ETH 2930 short, market price around 2925, stop-loss at 50% of position for protection."
Current prices are well below this entry point, indicating the strategy has achieved its target. However, risk reminders emphasize protecting costs.
As for long positions, no clear positive signals have been given, and: "Also, the #ETH long position has already gained 155 points, remember to reduce positions and hold at cost. Good night, brothers."
Mainstream sentiment remains focused on locking in profits and avoiding downside risks.
These views are consistent with current price trends, and in a subdued market environment, strategies are mainly defensive, favoring short or wait-and-see approaches.

5. Future Trend Predictions and Trading Recommendations
Based on candlestick trends, volume changes, and analyst opinions, ETH faces significant short-term pressure. Continuous weakness leads to breaking below support levels, with rebounds lacking volume, increasing the likelihood of testing 2775–2814 support. If this support is broken, further declines are possible.
Major resistance zones are at 2930–2960 and 3000–3030. Without timely volume breakthroughs, upward movement will be limited.
Trading suggestions:
- Favor short positions after rebounds, closely monitor the 2925–2960 resistance zone. If unable to break through effectively, consider light short positions with risk controls above $2950.
- For longs, if prices sharply fall to the 2775–2814 support and show signs of volume decline and stabilization, consider low-buying for rebounds, but with strict stop-losses.
Mainstream strategies remain defensive, avoiding chasing highs or panicking, and closely follow volume and market structure changes.

6. Risk Warning
Current candlestick patterns show clear signs of retreat from highs and infrequent new lows, indicating significant short-term downside risk. If the key support at 2775 is broken, it could trigger a panic-driven decline.
Volume remains subdued, and capital support is insufficient for a strong rebound. Whale liquidations and outflows of spot funds further amplify market risks.
Investors should strictly control positions, strengthen risk management, monitor key supports below, and watch for intraday volume spikes to avoid chasing highs.