#NonfarmDataBeats Last night's US November non-farm payroll report sent mixed signals to the market and risk assets. Employment increased by 64,000 jobs, exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate jumped to 4.6%, the highest in four years, indicating signs of a cooling labor market. October's data was significantly revised downward, showing the largest job loss in five years. Other data such as retail sales and the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) also painted a relatively weak economic picture. This combination of "better-than-expected job growth" and rising unemployment rate has left traders uncertain about the economic outlook and the direction of monetary policy.

The market response was increased volatility in the crypto markets, but with limited directional follow-through. Bitcoin initially surged toward around $88,000, then quickly retreated to about $86,000, briefly rebounded near $88,100, and then stabilized in today’s early trading between approximately $87,000 and $88,000. Ethereum and many large-cap altcoins also fluctuated within narrow intraday ranges, reflecting a lack of clear confidence from both buyers and sellers as the market digests complex macro signals.
On the macro front, mixed employment data strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve may adopt further easing by 2026. Market participants anticipate an increased probability of rate cuts in the future, and policy could be more dovish than previously expected. This dovish tilt provides short-term support for risk assets like Bitcoin, as traders prepare for a looser financial environment next year. Recent comments from Fed officials emphasized labor market risks and softened language compared to earlier hawkish guidance, further reinforcing the view that monetary easing could continue into 2026.
However, the broader macroeconomic environment still faces resistance. The Bank of Japan is widely expected to raise interest rates immediately, marking one of the first hikes in decades, which could trigger a decline in global risk appetite. If the Bank of Japan continues tightening policy, the long-standing yen carry trade may reverse, leading to liquidity withdrawal from risk assets including cryptocurrencies, putting downward pressure on prices. Analysts note that previous tightening cycles by the Bank of Japan have triggered significant Bitcoin corrections, and this dynamic remains a key risk event in the coming days.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s daily chart shows support near the key lower band, which has helped drive the recent rebound. However, the bearish moving average crossover above still limits upward momentum. Short-term indicators like the four-hour MACD are contracting, suggesting a possible relief rally, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the intraday timeframe is approaching overbought levels, and hourly momentum is slowing. These mixed technical signals imply that after a rebound and brief correction, prices could enter a weak sideways phase or, if selling pressure resumes, continue downward. Short-term resistance is concentrated around $88,500–$90,000, while support levels are near $86,000 and recent lows around $85,000.
Many traders are now concerned whether Bitcoin( and the broader cryptocurrency) market can retest the $80,000 level. Given the current macro uncertainty—dovish Fed expectations suppressed by tightening policies elsewhere, coupled with lackluster economic indicators—such a test is possible if risk sentiment further deteriorates. Breaking below key support levels could trigger deeper corrections, especially amid holiday liquidity reduction and increased technical volatility. Conversely, a breakout above major resistance on strong volume could shift the structure back to bullish.
Investors and traders should remain cautious. Entering the market in a mixed signal environment increases the risk of sharp price swings. The current market climate favors risk management and disciplined positioning over aggressive directional bets. The above views are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice; all trading involves risks and should be evaluated based on individual risk tolerance and market understanding#廣場發帖領$50