Q1 2026 Could Mark XRP's Next Major Peak—But History Suggests Caution on the Downside

The Ripple token has struggled recently, with prices down roughly 40% since mid-year highs, prompting a shift in market focus from short-term gains back to structural foundations. Yet amid this consolidation, technical experts remain optimistic about longer-term prospects, though not without noting potential risks.

When Technical Alignment Meets Historical Patterns

A prominent technical analyst highlighted a compelling parallel between current market conditions and a critical setup from the 2017 bull cycle. According to their analysis, XRP is currently testing the 21-month exponential moving average on the monthly timeframe—the same level that preceded a major rally in late 2017.

In December 2017, the token approached this technical zone before accelerating into January 2018, when Ripple printed its historic peak. The pattern now suggests December 2025 could echo that sequence. If support holds over the coming weeks, Q1 2026 may deliver a decisive move toward fresh all-time highs, potentially challenging the previous peak of $3.65.

However, this optimistic scenario carries a significant caveat. The same historical template that preceded the 2017 surge was also followed by an equally dramatic correction. The analyst cautioned that once momentum exhausts at cycle peaks, sharp reversals often follow—what market participants call a “rug pull” style breakdown.

Monthly Indicators Suggest Structural Strength, Not Collapse

Beyond pattern recognition, the broader technical landscape offers supporting evidence. Monthly timeframe indicators, which typically filter out noise and focus on directional bias, currently lean toward continuation rather than breakdown:

Key Technical Readings:

• RSI(14): 54.447 – A neutral position indicating balanced momentum without overbought exhaustion
• Stochastic(9,6): 55.573 – Pointing to improving upside traction
• MACD(12,26): 0.402 – Showing positive trend strengthening signals
• ADX(14): 34.997 – Suggesting a trend gaining structural strength
• Rate of Change: 298.921 – Reflecting sustained long-term upward pressure
• Ultimate Oscillator: 51.429 – Indicating steady accumulation without exhaustion

The convergence of these readings matters because it tells a consistent story: XRP is not experiencing a breakdown but rather a consolidation within a broader bullish framework. The ADX level near 35, in particular, typically signals a trend gathering strength rather than losing momentum. Combined with a strong rate of change reading, the monthly technical backdrop supports the projection that longer-term pressure favors continued strength if key support remains intact.

Why Q1 2026, Not Sooner?

The emphasis on Q1 2026 rather than immediate months reflects the time required for structural development. Previous XRP cycles followed similar maturation timelines—consolidation phases that took months to fully resolve before acceleration occurred. The current setup suggests that pattern could repeat.

At present, XRP trades at $1.81 against its historical all-time high of $3.65, still significantly below previous peaks yet showing stabilization on longer-term charts. The 24-hour price action shows a modest -2.63% decline, typical for consolidation phases rather than breakdown confirmation.

The Risk Premium: Understanding Cycle Reversals

While the technical case for Q1 2026 upside appears structurally sound, the historical record demands respect for downside risk. Major rallies in XRP have historically been followed by proportional corrections once momentum exhausts.

This pattern is not unique to Ripple but reflects broader cryptocurrency market behavior during bull cycles. The analyst’s warning should be interpreted not as a bearish reversal signal immediately, but rather as a reminder that explosive peaks create the conditions for equally sharp reversals. Traders and holders should prepare for both directions: the upside scenario if support holds, and the correction scenario if the cycle culminates as expected.

The coming weeks will prove critical in determining whether the current technical setup maintains integrity or breaks down prematurely, setting the stage for how Q1 2026 ultimately develops.