Will the pancake bounce back to 100,000? The truth about year-end market trends is in this on-chain data.

The Double 12 has passed, but is Christmas still far away? Do you think Bitcoin will skyrocket or surge this time? First, let’s see what is really happening in the market.

Fewer and fewer coins can be sold on exchanges

This is not an exaggeration but the naked truth revealed by on-chain data. The tradable Bitcoin on major global exchanges now only amounts to 2.76 million coins, which is 440,000 less than at the end of last year. To look at it from another angle, it’s equivalent to about 4,000 Bitcoins “disappearing” from the market every day—not destroyed, but accumulated.

According to historical patterns, whenever the Bitcoin stock on exchanges drops below 3 million, December’s price increase has never been less than 30%. What about 2025? It’s the first year after the halving. From 2017 to 2024, the performance around these Christmas periods was an increase of 86%, 48%, and 31%, respectively. As institutions grow more numerous, buying pressure becomes fiercer.

Who is accumulating these coins?

The first group is the “diamond hands” whales. These people hold Bitcoin for over 155 days, unwavering. They hold 13.75 million coins, accounting for 70.4% of circulating supply. These coins are stored in cold wallets and are not sold on exchanges—equivalent to a natural market supply reduction of 70%.

The second group is the “national teams,” and the scene has changed. The Trump family has already bought over 150,000 Bitcoins through their funds and controls 23% of the US’s mining hash rate. The Texas state government has allocated $100 million to buy Bitcoin as “emergency reserves,” now holding 32,000 coins. Florida is even more outrageous, investing 5% of teachers’ pension funds—about $8.7 billion—into Bitcoin ETFs.

Those who once harshly criticized Bitcoin are now turning around. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon called Bitcoin a “scam” in 2018, but by 2025, he’s forcing employees to learn about Bitcoin. Gold die-hard Peter Schiff used to rant daily that Bitcoin has no value, but now he’s involved in “gold tokenization,” which has been mocked by netizens.

How extreme is the supply-demand imbalance?

The market is increasingly scarce in sellable Bitcoin, while the number of big buyers continues to grow. What will this contrast lead to?

According to market logic, the period before Christmas has always been a traditional “festival rally” for Bitcoin. Coupled with record lows in exchange balances, continuous institutional entry, and retail FOMO, the probability of hitting psychological milestone levels at year-end is quite high.

Why hasn’t it surged yet?

The Federal Reserve is the key. Jerome Powell is indeed cutting interest rates, but he’s also signaling hawkishness while doing so. This isn’t mindless; it’s deliberately pushing traditional market funds out. US stocks are now like a broken bucket—more liquidity just spills out. Plus, the US government occasionally “shuts down,” causing some wobble in the dollar’s credit reputation.

Smart money has already seen through this—traditional safe havens are also leaking. At this moment, large amounts of capital are starting to treat Bitcoin as a new “water reservoir” and safe haven. It doesn’t rely on government endorsement, only on code rules, which makes it seem straightforward and reliable.

But for the market to truly take off, the Fed not only needs to talk about cutting rates but also needs to inject real liquidity. We are now waiting for this window.

What’s the next step?

If you have substantial capital, accumulate spot assets to earn long-term gains. Mainstream coins can be held for a year or more, with no less than 30% return. For smaller funds, trading contracts to profit from short-term volatility is an option.

Long-term investing is like farming: spring plowing, summer planting, autumn harvest, winter storage—patience is key. Short-term trading is like dancing on the edge of a knife: requires caution, patience, and flexibility. Some say avoid contracts when hitting the market, others say don’t play with spot—both are right and wrong, because everyone’s capital situation and risk tolerance are different.

This year-end rally is both an opportunity to push prices higher and a test of patience. Supply is already at its limit, demand continues to accumulate, and all that’s left is to wait for market sentiment to ignite that moment.